After a bye through the first-round of the playoffs, the NFC’s top seed is back in action as the Green Bay Packers prepare to host the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round on Saturday.  Green Bay finished the year 13-4 overall and went a perfect 8-0 at Lambeau Field.  San Francisco squeaked into the playoffs with a 10-7 record in the regular season before upsetting Dallas 23-17 in last week’s wild-card round.

The Packers are 6-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 47.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

These teams will have more than just game tape to rely on for this matchup after they got a firsthand taste of each other in Week 3 of the regular season.  Green Bay came out on top in that one, with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-28 win in San Francisco.  Jimmy Garoppolo finished with 257 passing yards and two TDs with one interception for the 49ers.

About 65 per cent of Sports Interaction bettors are joining the Cheesehead’s for this game.  The total is seeing a similar split, with just over 60 per cent of action taking the Over.  That makes sense given the Over has hit in three straight games between these teams and seven of the last 10.

The 49ers were much better on the road this year, going 7-3 (including last week) straight up outside of the Bay Area compared to 4-4 at home.  They’re 10-8 against the spread and have covered in five of their last six games.  The total has also gone Under in five of San Francisco’s last six games.

As mentioned above, Green Bay has been perfect at Lambeau this year, which is all the more reason to fear their home-field playoff advantage.  They’ve also been a great cover option, going 12-5 ATS overall and covering in seven of eight home games.  The Rodgers-led offence has helped the Packers hit the Over in six of their last seven games.

San Francisco 49ers

It wasn’t exactly a dynamite performance from Garoppolo in last week’s wild-card round, but it didn’t need to be.  Garoppolo threw for 172 yards and an interception, failing to pass for a touchdown.  Those struggles likely had to do with a sprained shoulder Garoppolo suffered in the second quarter.  He’ll still play on Saturday, but he’ll clearly be less than 100 per cent.

Dual-threat Deebo Samuel will need to carry a lot of the offensive weight.  Samuel rushed for 72 yards and a touchdown last week and also added another 38 receiving yards.  He averaged a league-high 18.2 yards per catch this season, while also averaging 6.2 yards per rush.

The biggest concern for the 49ers right now is on the defensive side of the ball.  Defensive end Nick Bosa, who was fourth in the NFL with 15.5 sacks in the regular season, missed the second half in Dallas with a concussion in Dallas.  Linebacker Fred Warner left in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury.  Both players have practiced this week, but are still considered questionable for Saturday.

Green Bay Packers

The betting favourite to win a second consecutive MVP, Rodgers is rested and will be dangerous this week.  This is a redemption game for Rodgers, who has an 0-3 career record against the 49ers in the playoffs.  It was another big year for Green Bay’s longtime pivot.  Rodgers finished the regular season with 4,115 passing yards, 37 TDs and just four interceptions.  He also led the NFL in passer rating (111.9) and adjusted QBR (68.9).

Wide receiver Davante Adams will be a big factor for the Packers.  Adams torched the Niners for 137 receiving yards and a touchdown earlier in the season.  He finished the year second in the NFL in receptions (123), third in receiving yards (1,553) and fifth in receiving TDs (11).

The extra week of rest has been a big boost to Green Bay’s defence.  Head coach Matt LaFleur is hopeful that pass rusher Za’Darius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander could be in the lineup on Saturday after both players returned to practice before the end of the regular season.  Smith hasn’t played since injuring his back in Week 1, while Alexander has been out with a shoulder injury since Week 3.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win 49ers vs. Packers?