49ers vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Dec 19, 2024

Elimination is creeping in toward both the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins when they clash over in the Sunshine State on Sunday.

AT
December 22, 2024, 4:25 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
8-9
Pointspread -2 -110
Moneyline -130
Over / Under o +44
Pointspread +2 -110
Moneyline +110
Over / Under u +44

Both clubs suffered defeats last week that had tremendous impacts on playoff odds. Miami’s 20-12 defeat at Houston kept the Dolphins two games back behind the final AFC Wild-Card spot, while the 49ers’ 12-6 loss on Thursday Night Football last week dropped them 6-8 as well and in sole possession of last in the NFC West.

Injuries have no doubt plagued both the 49ers and Dolphins during the 2024–25 season, but squandering last week’s opportunities sealed the disappointing fates for each team. Miami and the 49ers were both legitimate Super Bowl contenders last season and to an extent this season. Now, they battle one another in Week 16 to solidify one team finishing below .500.

Kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium goes at 4:25 p.m. EST, with the Dolphins currently a one-point favourite on home field and the total at 44.5 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Both San Francisco and Miami share identical 6-8 records, and 5-9 records against the spread. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS on the road this season but Miami’s not much better at home, going 2-5 ATS through seven home outings. Five consecutive Dolphins home games have gone over the total, as have five of the last six 49ers-Dolphins matchups. 

Offensive struggles, mainly due to key injuries, have been at the centre of both teams problems this season. The 49ers rank 15th with 22.4 points per contest this season and the Dolphins 24th with 19.7. For reference, the 49ers and Dolphins finished second and third in points scored last season respectively. Miami’s been scoring at home this season though, putting a minimum of 32 points in each of their last three home outings.

San Francisco 49ers

Some extra time to prepare, and Miami sunshine should do the 49ers offence some good. Or at least that’s the plan after last week’s 12-6 defeat to L.A. in the heavy rain. As bodies start to return for the 49ers defence, others are departing — in new ways too! The defence got a big boost last week when linebacker Dre Geenlaw returned from a torn Achilles suffered in last year’s Super Bowl, but now De’Vondre Campbell is gone from the linebacker corps. The 49ers suspended Campbell for at least the next three games after he refused to play last week.

Running back Isaac Guerendo, the 49ers third-string running back turned starter missed Wednesday’s practice with foot and hamstring issues. If Guerendo can’t go, Patrick Taylor Jr. and Israel Abanikanda would split backfield duties. Defensive end Nick Bosa (hip, oblique) is also on the team’s injury report now, which is the latest in a disastrous 49ers season. 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins again failed to rise to their competition’s level last week, losing at Houston 20-12 and falling to 1-6 when facing teams with a .500 record or better. With starting tackles starting tackles Terron Armstead (knee) and Kendall Lamm (back) injured, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offence felt the effects. The result was four Dolphins turnovers at the hands of Tua, 196 passing yards, and just two catches for 36 yards from Tyreek Hill. Armstead, Lamm, and Hill (rest/wrist) all did not practice Wednesday.

The Dolphins can’t function without Tagovailoa, something that’s derailed their two past seasons initially filled with optimism. But when Tagovailoa’s healthy, Miami still can’t seem to get over the hump against the NFL’s best. And despite a 6-8 record, the 49ers still have a ton of weapons that make them a dangerous NFL team and a problem for Miami.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win 49ers vs. Dolphins?

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