49ers vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: NFL Week 12 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Nov 20, 2018

matt breida 49ers large

San Francisco 49ers running back Matt Breida is coming off a strong performance against the Giants in which he rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown.

AT
November 25, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay
5-11
Pointspread +2 +100
Moneyline +105
Over / Under o +55

18%

Betting Action

82%

Pointspread -2 -120
Moneyline -125
Over / Under u +55

18%

Betting Action

82%

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL following a surprisingly strong start to the season. It has been even worse for the San Francisco 49ers. While neither team is anywhere close to a playoff position heading in to Week 12, there will still be major implications when the 49ers visit Tampa Bay this Sunday. At 2-8, San Francisco is currently one loss ahead of the Buccaneers in the race for the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. That likely won’t factor in to the outcome of this week’s contest even though fans of both teams might be cheering for their side to lose in an effort to tank for a better pick.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The 49ers have struggled with consistency all season. San Francisco has just one win in its last eight games and is 3-7 against the spread this season. Unlike the Buccaneers, the 49ers have struggled to score points this season. San Francisco has been held to 23 points or fewer in each of its last three losses.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight games after opening the season with back-to-back wins. The Buccaneers have gone from sports betting darlings to major disappointments with a 1-6-1 against the spread record over their last eight games. The fact that Tampa Bay has scored 28 points or more in three of its last four losses illustrates where the team’s biggest problems are right now.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers haven’t been much better than Tampa Bay defensively this season but that has a lot more to do with an offence that has struggled to control the possession battle than their own struggles as a unit. Still, San Francisco will need to do a better job of winning the turnover battle with an emphasis on forcing Winston in to making mistakes this weekend. First-year quarterback Nick Mullens showed some regression as expected in last week’s 27-23 loss to the New York Giants. Mullens isn’t a lost cause but it’s impossible to expect him to carry an offence at the NFL level right now. It should help that the Buccaneers defence has been absolutely terrible. Running back Matt Breida is coming off a strong performance against the Giants in which he rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown so we can expect him to get plenty of touches again this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Despite some pretty good offensive yardage totals with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, head coach Dirk Koetter made the decision to go back to Jameis Winston at quarterback this week. Winston has thrown eight touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions in limited playing time this season. In order to have a chance against the 49ers, Winston will need to cut down on the turnovers. It would certainly help if the Buccaneers were able to run the football and play better defence. However, it’s unlikely either of those things happens this week. Peyton Barber has struggled to run the ball behind a mediocre offensive line. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay defence has been leaky all season with a league-worst average of 32.9 points allowed per game. If the 49ers can establish the run, get some strong defensive play and limit Mullens’ exposure like they did in a 34-3 win over the Oakland Raiders a couple of weeks ago then they could have a good shot at upsetting Tampa Bay on the road. At the very least, San Francisco should be able to keep this game close.

49ers vs. Buccaneers Prediction

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