2020 NFL Draft Odds: NFL Rookie of the Year Predictions

Bettors don’t have to wait until after the NFL Draft to wager on which players might win Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year in the 2020 regular season.

Rookie Of Year Betting Strategy

Some might find it interesting that Sports Interaction already has odds up on 2020 NFL Offensive and Defense Rookies of the Year, but there can be value betting on those props now instead of after the draft even not knowing where the players might land.

Needless to say, the No. 1 key to wagering on both props is determining which rookies are going to play the most. You can’t win Rookie of the Year without getting on the field. For example, it was widely known that the Washington Redskins were going to start the 2019 season with No. 15 overall pick and quarterback Dwayne Haskins on the bench. Haskins was very raw and the team wanted him to learn for a while behind veteran Case Keenum. Thus, it would have been silly to bet on Haskins to win OROY.

Rookies on the better teams are going to generally play less because there’s a reason those teams are good. The Baltimore Ravens didn’t need quarterback Lamar Jackson with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft because they had veteran Joe Flacco under center that year. But the Ravens were thinking long term and when Flacco got hurt about midway through the season Jackson took over. Now he’s an MVP.

NFL Rookie of the Year Odds

To no surprise, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is the +250 favourite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The 2019 Heisman Trophy winner is going to start from Day 1 (barring injury) with the Cincinnati Bengals, who are going to take him No. 1 overall.

While quarterbacks always win the Heisman and NFL MVP Award these days, they don’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year as often as one might think. It’s not easy starting as a rookie under center in the ultra-complicated and much-faster NFL. It’s much easier for a running back or receiver, for example.

Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray was the No. 1 overall pick last year and did win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, although he probably wouldn’t have if Raiders tailback Josh Jacobs hadn’t gotten injured late in the season and missed a few games.

Since 2010, only five quarterbacks have won OROY: Sam Bradford with the Rams in 2010; Cam Newton with the Panthers in 2011; Robert Griffin III with Washington in 2012; Dak Prescott with the Cowboys in 2016; and then Murray. Prescott was the only one not drafted in the Top 2 as he was a fourth-round pick.

Prior to Murray, the two winners were running backs: Saquon Barkley of the Giants and Alvin Kamara of the Saints. Cincinnati hasn’t had a winner since wideout Carl Pickens in 1992.

Georgia running back D’Andre Swift and Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa are both +700. Not clear where those guys will be drafted. We projected Tua at No. 5 overall to Miami, but there’s a school of thought of sitting Tua his entire rookie season because he was so injury-prone in college. Swift should be the first running back off the board in the draft and quite possibly the only first-round tailback. That’s far from a sure thing, though.

Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor is +800 with Ohio State tailback JK Dobbins at +1000 and Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert at +1100. We don’t expect Herbert to play much as a rookie and see him backing up Tyrod Taylor with the Chargers.

It’s a bit more difficult to project a Defensive Rookie of the Year because it’s harder to determine how much a guy may play as a rookie. For example, a top pass-rusher may just play on passing downs as a rookie until he learns to defend the run. Some linebackers are good against the run and not the pass.

Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is the +300 favorite, followed by Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons at +400. It would be an upset if Young doesn’t go No. 2 overall to Washington after leading the FBS with 16.5 sacks last season. Betting on an Ohio State player to win DROY has been profitable of late as they have won it three times in the past four seasons: defensive end Nick Bosa in 2019 with the 49ers; cornerback Marshon Lattimore in 2017 with the Saints; and defensive end Joey Bosa in 2016 with the Chargers.

I wouldn’t recommend betting a cornerback on this prop as that’s the hardest defensive position to play as a rookie in the NFL, and DROY voters tend to notice tackles and sacks first and foremost. This century, only Lattimore and Marcus Peters in 2015 with the Chiefs won DROY as defensive backs.

The shortest odds for a defensive back this year belong to Ohio State’s Jeff Okudah at +1400. We projected him to No. 3 overall to Detroit.

NFL Predictions

Swift at +700 to win OROY and LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson at +1600 for DROY.