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Jeremy Perry
Birmingham Bowl Spread: Memphis vs. Wake Forest Prediction
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Memphis Tigers both endured very volatile seasons. This makes their bowl game a true mystery. Coaching changes on both staffs are part of the backdrop to this game.
Birmingham Bowl Betting Analysis
The Wake Forest defence was never particularly consistent in 2018, but its best three-game stretch of the season was the final one. Wake went 4-5 in its first nine games but went 2-1 in its last three to make a bowl game with a 6-6 record. Wake held North Carolina State to 23 points on the road, and it then limited Duke to only seven points on the road in a 59-7 rout to clinch bowl eligibility. The team’s defence was coached by Jay Sawvel in the first four weeks of the season. However, after a 56-27 loss to Notre Dame on Sept. 22, head coach Dave Clawson fired Sawvel. The defence didn’t immediately improve, but the closing stretch was the best the defence had played all year.
The Memphis coaching change did not happen during the regular season, but after it ended. Kenny Dillingham, 29 years old, took the open position as Auburn’s offensive coordinator under Gus Malzahn. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is a former offensive coordinator, however, so Memphis probably won’t be inconvenienced as much as it would have been if its defensive coordinator had left. Nevertheless, this introduces a measure of instability before the bowl game. It is worth noting as part of the backdrop to the Birmingham Bowl.
Memphis Tigers
The Tigers were also very inconsistent this year. They were awful in their losses to Navy (a three-win team), Tulane, Missouri (by 32 points), and even in one of their wins, a very sloppy and messy 28-18 win over SMU. Memphis feasted on bad teams – Mercer, Georgia State, UConn and East Carolina – before closing with a 21-point win over a talented Houston team. It played UCF in the AAC Championship Game and took a 31-14 lead, but lost its way in the second half and fell, 56-41. The Tigers have more raw talent than Wake Forest, but that deflating loss might leave them less motivated than Wake for this bowl game. Memphis has lost its previous two bowl games under coach Mike Norvell, while Wake is 2-0 under coach Dave Clawson. That is hard to overlook here.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons were all over the place this season. They lost by 29 to Notre Dame, 60 to Clemson, 21 to a 5-7 Florida State team, 17 to Syracuse, and 21 to a six-loss Pitt team. The Deacs also beat Rice by 32, Louisville by 21, and Duke by 52. The North Carolina State road win, by four points, was an impressive performance. This team never found an identity but also never gave up when things looked bleak. It will be confident heading into the bowl game. This team did well to get here. It easily could have fallen short of bowl eligibility.
