How to Bet Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: CFP National Championship Game Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 15, 2025

The longest college football season in history comes to an end Monday when No. 8 seed Ohio State faces No. 7 Notre Dame in the CFP national title game.

Ohio State
10-2
AT
January 20, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Notre Dame
11-1
Pointspread -8.5 -110
Moneyline -400
Over / Under o +45.5
Pointspread +8.5 -110
Moneyline +310
Over / Under u +45.5

The Buckeyes are 8-point favourites with a total of 45.5.

College Football Playoff National Championship Betting

Expect some major changes to the College Football Playoff ahead of the 2026 season (the first time it can really be adjusted due to TV network contracts), including a likely expansion to 14 teams, because clearly the seeding was off in the first-ever 12-team field. 

There is no universe where Notre Dame should have been seeded seventh and Ohio State eighth this season, but because neither won a conference title they couldn’t be higher than fifth – the Irish don’t play in a conference, so that’s the absolute highest they can be seeded under this format. Interesting that none of the five conference winners in the field even reached the semifinals.

To win in college football these days, you have to do well in the transfer portal and both these clubs did. There are numerous key transfers on both sides, but Ohio State starting QB Will Howard transferred from Kansas State ahead of this season and Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard came in from Duke. It’s the collegiate finale for both. 

Both schools are seeking their ninth national title in the Associated Press Poll era, which is since 1936. Only Alabama has more with 14. Ohio State is 6-2 all-time vs. Notre Dame and has won the past six – most recently 17-14 in South Bend in September 2023. Technically this isn’t a bowl game, but OSU is 2-0 in the series in bowls (2005 & 2015 Fiesta Bowl).

Ohio State Buckeyes

So much for the job status of OSU coach Ryan Day being in some jeopardy after the regular-season finale loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes are in the national title game for the first time since losing to Alabama following the 2020 season and seeking their first championship since following the 2014 season – the first of the College Football Playoff era. The Buckeyes would become only the third national champion with at least two losses in the AP Poll era (1960 Minnesota, 2007 LSU). They lead the nation in scoring defence at 12.2 PPG, and end Jack Sawyer became an OSU legend forever with his epic 83-yard fumble return for a score to clinch the Buckeyes’ 28-14 win over No. 5 Texas in the semifinals.

The Horns looked as if they were about to tie the game at 21-21 with first-and-goal at the OSU 1 with just under four minutes left, but Sawyer sacked UT quarterback Quinn Ewers on fourth-and-goal from the 8 and then returned it for the touchdown. That was Ohio State’s fourth win this season against an AP Top 5 team, tied for the most in FBS history. It has won all three CFP games by at least 14 points. QB Will Howard has been terrific in the three playoff games, completing 74% of his throws with six TDs and averaging 306.3 ypg. Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its past five vs. ranked opponents. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman played linebacker at Ohio State from 2004-08 and was named second-team All-Big Ten twice. We have seen a head coach win a national title against his alma mater fairly recently with Clemson’s Dabo Swinney beating Alabama following the 2018 season. I picked against Notre Dame in its semifinal against No. 6 Penn State as the Irish were on two days fewer rest and dealing with some injuries, but they won their FBS-best 13th game in a row, 27-24, on a Mitch Jeter 41-yard field goal in the final seconds. There were a shocking 31 points scored in the fourth quarter of that one despite two excellent defences. Notre Dame ranks second nationally in scoring defence at 14.3 PPG.

QB Riley Leonard left the Penn State game for a bit to be checked for a concussion but was cleared and returned – he threw the-game tying 54-yard TD pass to Jaden Greathouse with 4:38 remaining. The Irish are seeking their first national title since the 1988 season. They have the most wins (14) and best points differential (+352) in a season in school history. ND is 11-0 ATS in its past 11 games. 2

CFP Prediction: Who Will Win Ohio State vs. Notre Dame?

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