How to Bet Notre Dame vs. Penn State: CFP Semifinal Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 08, 2025

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The first College Football Playoff semifinal of the New Year is Thursday night from the Orange Bowl in Miami.

Notre Dame
11-1
AT
January 09, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Penn State
11-2
Pointspread +1 -110
Moneyline -105
Over / Under o +45.5
Matchup Odds
Pointspread -1 -110
Moneyline -115
Over / Under u +45.5
Matchup Odds

Football independent and seventh-seeded Notre Dame takes on Big Ten school and No. 6 Penn State, with the Irish as 2.5-point favourites on the NCAAF odds and a total of 53.5.

College Football Playoff Semifinal Betting Analysis

The winner of this game faces the winner of Friday’s Cotton Bowl matchup between No. 8 Ohio State and No. 5 Texas in the national championship game from Atlanta on Jan. 20. Either the Buckeyes or Longhorns would be favoured in that. Currently to win the title, the Irish are +450 and Nittany Lions +575. The favoured exact final result is Ohio State over Notre Dame at +250. 

Both the Irish’s Marcus Freeman and Penn State counterpart James Franklin are seeking their first national championship as a head coach. One of them will become the first Black head coach in an FBS national title game. Franklin has said this reminds him of Super Bowl XLI between Tony Dungy of Tampa Bay and Chicago’s Lovie Smith in 2007, the first Super Bowl featuring Black head coaches.

This marks the 20th all-time meeting between the blue-blood programs and second bowl game after the Irish won the 1976 Gator Bowl. They haven’t met anywhere since 2007 when Penn State rolled to tie the series at 9-9-1. It’s the first meeting with both teams ranked in Top 10 of Associated Press Poll.

How the College Football Playoff Works

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish have beaten No. 10 Indiana and No. 2 Georgia both by double digits so far in the playoff, although Notre Dame caught a massive break in the quarterfinals against the Dawgs in that they were without their injured starting quarterback. They still outgained the Irish 300-244, but Georgia had two crucial turnovers and ND none. That game in New Orleans was pushed back a day because of a terror attack in the city, which means that Notre Dame will not have two fewer days of rest and preparation than Penn State. The Fighting Irish have been battling through injuries all season. They lost All-America cornerback Benjamin Morrison for the season in October and then top pass-rusher Rylie Mills (7.5 sacks) in the Indiana victory. Notre Dame enters on an FBS-best 12-game winning streak, by an average of 27.5 points. It also has won eight in a row dating back a few years against AP Top 25 schools. The Irish are 2-10 SU in their past 12 January games. 

Penn State Nittany Lions

While Notre Dame appeared in a CFP semifinal once in the old format, this is Penn State’s first time in the playoff overall. These teams are a lot alike as they generally win with a ball-control offence and dominant defence. The Nittany Lions have had even less trouble in this playoff than the Irish have, routing No. 11 SMU by a score of 38-10 and then taking out No. 3 Boise State, 31-14, in the quarterfinals. Both the Mustangs and Broncos scored season lows in points. That PSU defence also forced at least three turnovers in each. Led by the tailback 1-2 punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, the first duo in school history with 1,000 yards rushing each in the same season, Penn State averaged 202.5 rushing yards in each CFP victory. Notre Dame was ranked No. 5 in the final AP poll of the regular season, and Penn State is 1-14 vs. AP Top 5 opponents all-time under Coach James Franklin. But I like the Lions here considering their only two losses came against maybe the country’s two best teams in Oregon and Ohio State. PSU is 5-2 ATS in its past seven. 

CFP Prediction: Who Will Win Notre Dame vs. Penn State?

SportsInteraction
  • ND
  • +1 -1
  • PSU
Matchup NCAAF Odds