LSU vs. Alabama: NCAAF Week 9 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Oct 31, 2023

One of the biggest annual games of the season in the SEC is on tap Saturday as No. 13 LSU visits No. 8 Alabama with huge implications in the West Division.

The Tide are 3-point favourites on the NCAAF odds.

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

LSU probably is giddy about the fact the SEC will do away with divisions starting in 2024 when Oklahoma and Texas join because the Tigers probably have been good enough over the years to reach the SEC title game but were stuck in the same West Division as Alabama. Surely every West Division school will be glad to get out of that shadow.

Since LSU won an memorable 9-6 defensive war at Alabama in November 2011, the Tide have dominated the series. They won that season’s rematch in the BCS National Championship game and including that had won 10 of the past 11 against the Tigers but were upset 32-31 in overtime in Baton Rouge last season. LSU star quarterback Jayden Daniels ran for 25-yard touchdown in overtime and Coach Brian Kelly opted to try for the two-point conversion and win. It was successful. As Notre Dame’s coach, Kelly had lost to Nick Saban and Alabama twice in college football’s postseason.

Last year’s loss essentially ended an chance Alabama had at returning to the College Football Playoff and essentially won the SEC West for LSU, which was trounced in the conference title game by eventual national champion Georgia.

Alabama leads 55-27-5 all-time and 14-8 in Tuscaloosa. It’s the 18th time since 2002 (a span of 23 games) that both teams enter the game ranked in the Top 25.

LSU Tigers

If LSU had any defence, the Tigers would be legit national title contenders because that offence is special led by QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Jayden Daniels. His 25 TD passes through eight games rank second in LSU history to only Heisman winner Joe Burrow, who had 30 during that span in 2019. Daniels has accounted for 30 total TDs, behind Burrow’s 33 in 2019 for the most in school history through eight games. Daniels leads the nation in total offence with 386.8 yards per game and in pass efficiency (204.3 rating) and passing yards per attempt (11.54). He is one of only six players in FBS history with 10,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards in his career. LSU has scored at least 48 points in four straight games for the first time in the SEC era and has amassed at least 500 yards in seven straight games, a program first. The Tigers have had at least one 100-yard receiver in all seven. Malik Nabers leads the country in receiving yards (981) and Brian Thomas Jr. is tied for first in receiving TDs (11). The Tigers lead the country in scoring offence (47.4), total offence (552.9), first downs (217) and third-down conversions (57.8 per cent).

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama has won five straight since being stunned in Week 2 at home by Texas. Jalen Milroe has clearly settled in as the starting quarterback, and the defence hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game since. Since his return to the starting lineup, Milroe is averaging 233.7 passing yards per game (1,168 total) while completing 66.7 percent of his passes and accounting for 11 total touchdowns (eight passing). Alabama is 13-6 in games following a bye under head coach Nick Saban. During his tenure in Tuscaloosa, Saban has been beaten a total of 28 times. Of those, Crimson Tide and Saban have had the opportunity to face the team that beat them at a later date on 23 occasions. In those 23 rematches, Alabama owns a 21-2 mark when avenging its previous loss. That’s the spot the Tide are in against LSU after losing last year. The only two times Bama lost back-to-back games against the same opponent was LSU (2010-11) and Ole Miss (2014-15). In the past 12 games in this series, Alabama is 10-0 when limiting the Tigers to 17 points or fewer.

Score prediction

Alabama 38, LSU 31

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