2022 Holiday Bowl: Oregon (15) vs. North Carolina Odds, Prediction

Daniel Coyle | Updated Dec 27, 2022

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Two of the top offensive teams in the nation clash on Wednesday as the Oregon Ducks take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in this season’s edition of the Holiday Bowl.

Oregon
9-3
AT
December 28, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
Petco Park
North Carolina
9-4
Pointspread -13 -113
Moneyline -473
Over / Under o +76

58%

Betting Action

42%

Matchup NCAAF Odds
Pointspread +13 -107
Moneyline +381
Over / Under u +76

58%

Betting Action

42%

Matchup NCAAF Odds

The Ducks ranked ninth in the nation this season while racking up 39.7 points per game, but struggled at times to generate offence while losing two of their final three regular season contests, capped by a 38-34 loss to the arch-rival Oregon State Beavers. The Tar Heels passing game ranked seventh in the nation this season with 35 touchdowns. However, UNC struggled badly down the stretch, averaging just 18 points per game during a 0-3 schedule-ending run.

The Ducks have emerged as heavy 14-point favourites on the NCAAF odds for Wednesday night’s matchup at Petco Park, with the total pegged at a lofty 75.0.

Holiday Bowl Betting Analysis

Wednesday night’s matchup marks the first ever meeting between these two teams. The Ducks enter this year’s postseason riding a two-game straight up losing streak in bowl game action, but have earned the win in two of their past three bowl game appearances.

The Tar Heels have earned just one win in their past six bowl game appearances, with four of their five recent bowl game defeats coming by double-digit margins, capped by a 38-21 loss to South Carolina in last year’s edition of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

Oregon Ducks (15)

Despite losing two of their final three games, the Ducks closed out their regular season at No. 15 on the AP Top 25 rankings with a 9-3 overall record including a 7-2 mark in Pac-12 conference play. Oregon also emerged as a reliable bet as the season progressed, going 6-2 against the spread down the stretch, and covering in five of six contests while listed as a double-digit favourite. But after scoring 41 or more points in each of their wins during a mid-season 8-0 run, the Ducks cooled off in their last three contests, averaging just 28.3 points per game.

The Oregon offence enters the Holiday Bowl largely unscathed by injuries or absences due to transfer portal and NFL Draft opt outs. After confirming last week that he will be back in Oregon for own more season, the Ducks’ attack will be led by Bo Nix. The senior quarterback tossed for 27 scores this season including 15 over the past six games, and is expected to keep favourite target Troy Franklin busy once again after connecting with the sophomore receiver on scoring passes in each of the past three games.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Things look far bleaker for North Carolina, which has plenty of work to do to snap a 0-3 run. Drake Maye has enjoyed an outstanding season. The freshman pivot connected on 34 scoring passes over his first 10 outings, but wilted down the stretch. Over the team’s recent three defeats, Maye completed just 58.7 per cent of pass attempts and tossed for just one score against four picks, while getting sacked 12 times.

Complicating matters for Maye is the absence of top receiver Josh Downs, who has opted out of Wednesday’s contest. UNC will also be without top cornerback Storm Duck, who has entered the transfer portal. Those absences are a major concern for a Tar Heels squad that was blown out in its lone date with a nationally ranked opponent, a 39-10 loss to No. 9 Clemson in the ACC championship game, and which surrendered the most points by far of any ACC team this season.

Holiday Bowl Prediction: Who Will Win Oregon vs. North Carolina?

SportsInteraction
  • ORE
  • -13 +13
  • UNC
Matchup NCAAF Odds