It will be hard for TCU to create as much drama in this game but the Horned Frogs are hoping to not require as much stress and strain against Stanford, the Pac-12 North Division champion this season.

Cardinal vs. Horned Frogs Spread and Betting Analysis

TCU opened up this game as a 2.5-point favorite and that’s where they sit at press time. We’ve seen a little bit of movement on the total, which opened up at 47.5. It now sits at 49.

Stanford has done well in bowl games, covering nine of their last 13 appearances. TCU has won 11 of their last 18 bowl games but are just 9-8-1 ATS. Also of note, Stanford is 5-1-1 ATS this season versus teams with a winning record while TCU is just 2-4 ATS facing winning teams.

Stanford Cardinal

The Cardinal had a successful season despite four losses. They beat Washington to win the Pac-12 North, a very big achievement for a team which got crushed by the Huskies a year ago. Stanford lost a non-conference game to San Diego State and was still struggling in the middle of October. The Cardinal needed their passing game to emerge and support the running game of Bryce Love, who finished as the runner-up in the Heisman Trophy voting. That passing game could still not be seen in late October, but it came alive on Nov. 10 in the big win over Washington. K.J. Costello became the kind of quarterback the Cardinal needed to balance their offense and keep opposing secondaries honest. Stanford’s newfound ability to throw the ball enabled the Cardinal to convert third and long situations and hit 20-yard plays down the field, which reduced pressure on Love to have to do everything himself.

As good as TCU’s defense was this season, they finished 44^th in pass defense. They allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a quarterback rating of 150.9, which was 20^th worst in the country. Yes, they faced some good quarterbacks in the Big 12 but if Stanford is able to pass here and move the chains, they’ll be exactly where they want to be.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs lost three times this season, twice to Big 12 champion and College Football Playoff representative Oklahoma. There is no shame in losing to Oklahoma – the Sooners have the best offense in college football.

TCU’s defense could not handle the Sooners, but it was able to handle everyone else it faced this season. The challenge in this game is that they’re going to face a team with a big, bruising offensive line and a running back that was arguably the best in college football. If TCU can load up and stuff the run, they’ll be in great shape. If not, Stanford will control the line of scrimmage, pace and time of possession, and likely win.

The good news is TCU thrived at stopping the run this year. They finished sixth in run defense and fourth in yards per carry allowed (2.9).

Alamo Bowl Prediction