The College Football Playoff on New Year’s Day concludes with the Sugar Bowl from New Orleans as No. 3 Ohio State and No. 2 Clemson stage a rematch from last season’s CFP. The Tigers are 7.5-point favourites on the college football odds with a total of 66.
The winner here will almost surely face No. 1 Alabama in the national title game Jan. 11 from Miami. Obviously, injuries, results, etc., would change things but early projections would have the Tide around -10 vs. Ohio State and -4 vs. Clemson.
Allstate Sugar Bowl Betting Analysis
It’s extremely rare for Ohio State to be at least a 7.5-point underdog. It hasn’t happened in a regular-season game since 2011 at Michigan and last occurred on New Year’s Day 2015 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes were the No. 4 seed and were +7.5 vs. No. 1 Alabama, also in the Sugar Bowl. Ohio State won that and then knocked off No. 2 Oregon to win its last national championship.
It’s Ohio State’s fourth trip to the CFP semifinals, and a third seed has yet to win it all – every other seed has. OSU is +500 do so this time. Clemson is in the CFP for the sixth year in a row and those six appearances tie Alabama for the most all-time. The Tigers have won it twice and are +250.
These schools met in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal last season with No. 3 Clemson a 2.5-point favorite over No. 2 Ohio State. The Tigers won a fantastic game, 29-23. Trevor Lawrence hit running back Travis Etienne on the go-ahead 34-yard touchdown pass with 1:49 remaining. Justin Fields drove the Buckeyes, who once led 16-0, back down the field but was intercepted in the Clemson end zone with 37 seconds remaining. That remains Ohio State’s lone loss under Coach Ryan Day.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Had the Big Ten stuck to its original rule of mandating a minimum of six conference games played for a school to eligible to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, then Ohio State wouldn’t even be here. The Buckeyes had games vs. Maryland, Illinois and Michigan cancelled. However, following the Michigan news, the conference altered the rule and let the 5-0 Buckeyes play in the conference title game. OSU was pushed in that, beating No. 14 Northwestern 22-10 – easily the fewest points the Buckeyes have scored this season.
Fields was dealing with an injured thumb and missing top wideout Chris Olave due to COVID-19 protocols, and the quarterback had his worst game as a Buckeye in completing just 12 of 27 for 114 yards and two picks – albeit against a very good defence. Most expect Fields to still be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The star vs. Northwestern was Oklahoma transfer running back Trey Sermon, who blew up for 331 yards rushing and two scores on 29 carries. That yardage was a school record – Ohio State has had some pretty good running backs – and the most all-time in any conference championship game.
It’s a bit hard to judge this year’s Buckeyes with so few games, but they don’t appear nearly as good as last season’s team. Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in its past seven as a neutral-site underdog.
Clemson Tigers
This will be the final collegiate game for two of the best players not just in Clemson history but ACC history in quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne. Lawrence has lost just one game as a starter in his career – last season’s national championship matchup vs. LSU. Lawrence is considered the best QB prospect from an NFL standpoint since John Elway and is a lock to go No. 1 overall in April to either the Jaguars or Jets.
Clemson did lose a game in double overtime this year at Notre Dame, but Lawrence was out due to COVID-19. He could have a big game against OSU secondary that ranked last in the Big Ten in pass defense. Notre Dame’s defence was better than Ohio State’s this year, and Lawrence threw for 322 yards and two scores and rushed for 90 yards and a TD in the 34-10 ACC title game win. Like Lawrence, Etienne is up for several major awards, and Etienne has accounted for 15 touchdowns this season and is the only running back in the nation with over 500 receiving yards. Etienne is the ACC’s all-time leader in rushing and career touchdowns. The Tigers rank fourth nationally in scoring at 44.9 ppg and allow only 17.5 ppg.
That said, this Clemson team probably isn’t as good as last year’s, either, after losing several guys to the NFL Draft and also lost top returning wideout Justyn Ross over the summer to a spinal issue that may force him to give up football. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its past six games as a neutral-site favourite.
CFP: Who Will Win Ohio State vs. Clemson?
Line History
No odds are available yet.
- Regular Season
- Playoffs
Buckeyes Team Leaders
Touchdowns |
6 |
Rushing |
675 |
Passing |
1521 |
Receiving |
38 |
Sacks |
3 |
Interceptions |
2 |
Touchdowns |
15 |
Rushing |
882 |
Passing |
2753 |
Receiving |
69 |
Sacks |
4 |
Interceptions |
3 |
Touchdowns |
2 |
Rushing |
195 |
Passing |
579 |
Receiving |
14 |
Sacks |
1 |
Interceptions |
1 |
Touchdowns |
2 |
Rushing |
32 |
Passing |
400 |
Receiving |
8 |
Sacks |
1 |
Interceptions |
1 |
- Regular Season
- Playoffs
Tigers Team Leaders
Touchdowns |
6 |
Rushing |
675 |
Passing |
1521 |
Receiving |
38 |
Sacks |
3 |
Interceptions |
2 |
Touchdowns |
15 |
Rushing |
882 |
Passing |
2753 |
Receiving |
69 |
Sacks |
4 |
Interceptions |
3 |
Touchdowns |
2 |
Rushing |
195 |
Passing |
579 |
Receiving |
14 |
Sacks |
1 |
Interceptions |
1 |
Touchdowns |
2 |
Rushing |
32 |
Passing |
400 |
Receiving |
8 |
Sacks |
1 |
Interceptions |
1 |
Injuries
Justin Fields (QB)
Haskell Garrett (DT)
Jack Miller III (QB)
Master Teague III (RB)
Baron Browning (LB)
Steele Chambers (RB)
Drue Chrisman (P)
Tommy Eichenberg (LB)
Justin Fields (QB)
Marcus Hooker (S)
K.J. Henry (DE)
Xavier Thomas (DE)
Jake Venables (LB)
Tye Herbstreit (WR)
Drew Swinney (WR)
Joseph Ngata (WR)
Darien Rencher (RB)
Frank Ladson Jr. (WR)
Sergio Allen (LB)
Matt Bockhorst (G)
Injuries
player (position) | status | ats*current | o/u* | notes | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Fields (QB) | Prob Mon | Undisclosed - 04 / 01 / 21 | 1-0 | 1-0 | + - |
Fields is expected to take the field for the College Football National Championship game against Alabama despite an unlisted injury. |
|||||
Haskell Garrett (DT) | Ques Mon | Knee - 01 / 01 / 21 | 1-1 | 1-1 | + - |
Garrett is hobbled by a knee injury, and his status for the College Football National Championship game against Alabama is in question. |
|||||
Jack Miller III (QB) | Ques Mon | Illness - 01 / 01 / 21 | 1-1 | 1-1 | + - |
Miller III tested positive for COVID-19, and it has yet to be established if he will be unavailable for the College Football National Championship game against Alabama. |
|||||
Master Teague III (RB) | Ques Mon | Undisclosed - 01 / 01 / 21 | 1-1 | 1-1 | + - |
Teague is dealing with an unannounced injury, and it is up in the air if it will sideline him for the College Football National Championship game versus Alabama. |
|||||
Baron Browning (LB) | Ques Fri | Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 | 2-1 | 2-1 | + - |
Browning is tending to an undetermined injury, and his status is up in the air for the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson. |
|||||
Steele Chambers (RB) | Ques Fri | Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 | 2-1 | 2-1 | + - |
Chambers is hampered by an undetermined ailment, and it is unknown if he will play against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. |
|||||
Drue Chrisman (P) | Ques Fri | Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 | 2-1 | 2-1 | + - |
Chrisman is battling an unlisted ailment, and it is unknown if he will participate in the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson. |
|||||
Tommy Eichenberg (LB) | Ques Mon | Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 | 2-1 | 2-1 | + - |
Eichenberg is nursing an unknown ailment, and his availability is up in the air against Alabama in the College Football National Championship game. |
|||||
Justin Fields (QB) | Prob Fri | Thumb - 19 / 12 / 20 | 2-1 | 2-1 | + - |
Fields has a sprained thumb, but it is likely that he will be available for the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson. |
|||||
Marcus Hooker (S) | Ques Fri | Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 | 2-1 | 2-1 | + - |
Hooker is hindered due to an unspecified ailment, and it is undetermined if he will play in the Sugar Bowl against Clemson. |
player (position) | status | ats*current | o/u* | notes | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
K.J. Henry (DE) | day-to-day | Leg - 01 / 01 / 21 | 1-0 | 0-1 | + - |
Henry left Friday's game with an apparent leg injury and his return is unknown. |
|||||
Xavier Thomas (DE) | Ques Fri | Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 | 2-0 | 0-2 | + - |
Thomas is battling an undetermined injury, and his status is unclear for the Sugar Bowl versus Ohio State. |
|||||
Jake Venables (LB) | Ques Fri | Arm - 08 / 12 / 20 | 2-0 | 0-2 | + - |
Venables is dealing with a fractured arm, and it is unknown if he will play against Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. |
|||||
Tye Herbstreit (WR) | Ques Fri | Undisclosed - 28 / 11 / 20 | 3-0 | 1-2 | + - |
Herbstreit is tending to an undefined ailment, and it is unknown if he will be active against Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. |
|||||
Drew Swinney (WR) | Ques Fri | Undisclosed - 28 / 11 / 20 | 3-0 | 1-2 | + - |
Swinney is managing an unannounced injury, and it remains to be seen if he will participate in the Sugar Bowl versus Ohio State. |
|||||
Joseph Ngata (WR) | out for season | Undisclosed - 25 / 11 / 20 | 3-0 | 1-2 | + - |
Ngata will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery for an unspecified ailment. |
|||||
Darien Rencher (RB) | Ques Sat | Illness - 14 / 11 / 20 | 3-1 | 2-2 | + - |
Rencher has tested positive for COVID-19 and is in quarantine. He is unlikely to line up against Pittsburgh on Saturday. |
|||||
Frank Ladson Jr. (WR) | Out indefinitely | Foot - 09 / 11 / 20 | 3-1 | 2-2 | + - |
Ladson Jr. is will miss an extended period due to a foot injury. |
|||||
Sergio Allen (LB) | Ques Sat | Undisclosed - 08 / 11 / 20 | 3-2 | 3-2 | + - |
Allen missed the last game for unlisted reasons, and his status for Saturday's contest versus Pitt remains hazy. |
|||||
Matt Bockhorst (G) | Ques Sat | Leg - 08 / 11 / 20 | 3-2 | 3-2 | + - |
Bockhorst has a right leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play Saturday against Pittsburgh. |
-
Line History
No odds are available yet.
-
- Regular Season
- Playoffs
Buckeyes Team Leaders
Touchdowns 6
Rushing 675
Passing 1521
Receiving 38
Sacks 3
Interceptions 2
Touchdowns 15
Rushing 882
Passing 2753
Receiving 69
Sacks 4
Interceptions 3
Touchdowns 2
Rushing 195
Passing 579
Receiving 14
Sacks 1
Interceptions 1
Touchdowns 2
Rushing 32
Passing 400
Receiving 8
Sacks 1
Interceptions 1
-
- Regular Season
- Playoffs
Tigers Team Leaders
Touchdowns 6
Rushing 675
Passing 1521
Receiving 38
Sacks 3
Interceptions 2
Touchdowns 15
Rushing 882
Passing 2753
Receiving 69
Sacks 4
Interceptions 3
Touchdowns 2
Rushing 195
Passing 579
Receiving 14
Sacks 1
Interceptions 1
Touchdowns 2
Rushing 32
Passing 400
Receiving 8
Sacks 1
Interceptions 1
-
Injuries
Justin Fields (QB)
Prob Mon Undisclosed - 04 / 01 / 21Haskell Garrett (DT)
Ques Mon Knee - 01 / 01 / 21Jack Miller III (QB)
Ques Mon Illness - 01 / 01 / 21Master Teague III (RB)
Ques Mon Undisclosed - 01 / 01 / 21Baron Browning (LB)
Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20Steele Chambers (RB)
Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20Drue Chrisman (P)
Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20Tommy Eichenberg (LB)
Ques Mon Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20Justin Fields (QB)
Prob Fri Thumb - 19 / 12 / 20Marcus Hooker (S)
Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20K.J. Henry (DE)
day-to-day Leg - 01 / 01 / 21Xavier Thomas (DE)
Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20Jake Venables (LB)
Ques Fri Arm - 08 / 12 / 20Tye Herbstreit (WR)
Ques Fri Undisclosed - 28 / 11 / 20Drew Swinney (WR)
Ques Fri Undisclosed - 28 / 11 / 20Joseph Ngata (WR)
out for season Undisclosed - 25 / 11 / 20Darien Rencher (RB)
Ques Sat Illness - 14 / 11 / 20Frank Ladson Jr. (WR)
Out indefinitely Foot - 09 / 11 / 20Sergio Allen (LB)
Ques Sat Undisclosed - 08 / 11 / 20Matt Bockhorst (G)
Ques Sat Leg - 08 / 11 / 20Injuries
player (position) status ats*current o/u* notes Justin Fields (QB) Prob Mon Undisclosed - 04 / 01 / 21 1-0 1-0 + - Fields is expected to take the field for the College Football National Championship game against Alabama despite an unlisted injury.
Haskell Garrett (DT) Ques Mon Knee - 01 / 01 / 21 1-1 1-1 + - Garrett is hobbled by a knee injury, and his status for the College Football National Championship game against Alabama is in question.
Jack Miller III (QB) Ques Mon Illness - 01 / 01 / 21 1-1 1-1 + - Miller III tested positive for COVID-19, and it has yet to be established if he will be unavailable for the College Football National Championship game against Alabama.
Master Teague III (RB) Ques Mon Undisclosed - 01 / 01 / 21 1-1 1-1 + - Teague is dealing with an unannounced injury, and it is up in the air if it will sideline him for the College Football National Championship game versus Alabama.
Baron Browning (LB) Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 2-1 2-1 + - Browning is tending to an undetermined injury, and his status is up in the air for the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson.
Steele Chambers (RB) Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 2-1 2-1 + - Chambers is hampered by an undetermined ailment, and it is unknown if he will play against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl.
Drue Chrisman (P) Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 2-1 2-1 + - Chrisman is battling an unlisted ailment, and it is unknown if he will participate in the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson.
Tommy Eichenberg (LB) Ques Mon Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 2-1 2-1 + - Eichenberg is nursing an unknown ailment, and his availability is up in the air against Alabama in the College Football National Championship game.
Justin Fields (QB) Prob Fri Thumb - 19 / 12 / 20 2-1 2-1 + - Fields has a sprained thumb, but it is likely that he will be available for the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson.
Marcus Hooker (S) Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 2-1 2-1 + - Hooker is hindered due to an unspecified ailment, and it is undetermined if he will play in the Sugar Bowl against Clemson.
player (position) status ats*current o/u* notes K.J. Henry (DE) day-to-day Leg - 01 / 01 / 21 1-0 0-1 + - Henry left Friday's game with an apparent leg injury and his return is unknown.
Xavier Thomas (DE) Ques Fri Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 20 2-0 0-2 + - Thomas is battling an undetermined injury, and his status is unclear for the Sugar Bowl versus Ohio State.
Jake Venables (LB) Ques Fri Arm - 08 / 12 / 20 2-0 0-2 + - Venables is dealing with a fractured arm, and it is unknown if he will play against Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.
Tye Herbstreit (WR) Ques Fri Undisclosed - 28 / 11 / 20 3-0 1-2 + - Herbstreit is tending to an undefined ailment, and it is unknown if he will be active against Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.
Drew Swinney (WR) Ques Fri Undisclosed - 28 / 11 / 20 3-0 1-2 + - Swinney is managing an unannounced injury, and it remains to be seen if he will participate in the Sugar Bowl versus Ohio State.
Joseph Ngata (WR) out for season Undisclosed - 25 / 11 / 20 3-0 1-2 + - Ngata will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery for an unspecified ailment.
Darien Rencher (RB) Ques Sat Illness - 14 / 11 / 20 3-1 2-2 + - Rencher has tested positive for COVID-19 and is in quarantine. He is unlikely to line up against Pittsburgh on Saturday.
Frank Ladson Jr. (WR) Out indefinitely Foot - 09 / 11 / 20 3-1 2-2 + - Ladson Jr. is will miss an extended period due to a foot injury.
Sergio Allen (LB) Ques Sat Undisclosed - 08 / 11 / 20 3-2 3-2 + - Allen missed the last game for unlisted reasons, and his status for Saturday's contest versus Pitt remains hazy.
Matt Bockhorst (G) Ques Sat Leg - 08 / 11 / 20 3-2 3-2 + - Bockhorst has a right leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play Saturday against Pittsburgh.