Idaho (15) vs. Houston (2) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
Get your popcorn ready for perhaps the most fun day on the annual sports calendar, the opening Thursday of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
The nightcap for the upcoming 16-game schedule pits the Houston Cougars against the Idaho Vandals, a No. 2 vs. No 15 showdown in the South Region.
Tipoff at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on truTV.
Let’s break down the matchup, which is a first-ever head-to-head meeting between Idaho and Houston.
Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Houston is going off as a humongous -23.5 favourite on the March Madness odds while being priced at -6500 on the moneyline. Idaho is +2000 to win outright for what would be a bracket-busting upset.
The game total is set at 136.5 points. Recent trends suggest that this contest could be more competitive than many expect. The Cougars are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11. By contrast, the Vandals are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall and 7-1 ATS in their last eight. The Under is 10-4 in Houston’s last 14 outings and 8-3 in Idaho’s last 11 away from home.
Idaho Vandals (15)
Idaho is in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth time ever and for the first time since 1989-90. The program is bidding for its second win in the Big Dance, having defeated Iowa in overtime to begin the 1982 tournament before losing to Oregon State. As recently as one week ago, this year’s squad certainly wasn’t expected to be a part of the March Madness festivities. The Vandals went 9-9 in the Big Sky Conference during the regular season before improbably winning the tournament as the No. 7 seed.
Head coach Alex Pribble’s roster features a balanced scoring attack with five players averaging between 12.1 and 18.0 points per game. In four appearances during “Starch Madness” (the moniker for the Big Sky Tournament), four different guys led the team in scoring. Idaho rarely produces much offence down low, however, so it can be vulnerable if perimeter shots are not falling.
Houston Cougars (2)
Whereas it’s a just-happy-to-be-here situation for Idaho, for Houston, it’s championship or bust. After all, the Cougars can only improve on last year’s performance if they go all the way (they lost to Florida in the 2025 national championship). Under head coach Kelvin Sampson, UH has reached at least the Sweet 16 on six consecutive occasions. This incredible stretch of consistency includes two Final Four appearances (also in 2021).
This year’s Houston team definitely has title potential. The Cougars compiled a 14-4 record in a stacked Big 12, earning the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament before finishing runner-up to top-seeded Arizona. They are a defensive-minded group, but freshman guard Kingston Flemings provides plenty of offence in the form of 16.4 PPG and 5.3 AST.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win Idaho vs. Houston?
Although the Cougars are obviously a far superior side, they simply may not get enough opportunities to cover such a gigantic spread. It’s hard to see this game being anything other than a low-scoring, low-possession slog. Houston ranks No. 328 out of 365 Division I programs in possessions per game, and Idaho is No. 128. The Vandals are turning the ball over just 10.4 times per game and have the guard play to make this matchup at least somewhat interesting. Let’s go with Houston 74, Idaho 56.