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Jeremy Perry
Xavier (1) vs. Texas Southern (16) Odds: March Madness Prediction
The Xavier Musketeers have gotten a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed for the first time ever. Now they’ll get a layup on Friday when they host the Texas Southern Tigers, who made the NCAA Tournament with a sub-.500 record. Xavier will win this game. The only question is if they’ll cover the big number on the March Madness betting board.
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Against the spread (ATS) this season, Xavier is 21-12. The Musketeers have an RPI of 3. The strength of schedule was boosted by multiple games against Villanova but hurt by the fact that Wisconsin – normally a very strong team – had a terrible season. An interesting detail is that Xavier has lost to only three teams this season despite losing five games: Villanova and Providence both beat Xavier twice. Xavier’s best win was over NCAA Tournament No. 2 seed Cincinnati.
Texas Southern is 7-1 ATS this season. They have fared well when favored, going 4-0 ATS and SU when listed as the chalk this year. However, they are 11-19 otherwise.
Xavier will be big favourites in this March Madness matchup.
Texas Southern Tigers
Texas Southern started the season 0-13 and finished under .500. No other team has made the NCAA Tournament after starting a season that poorly. The Tigers are known for taking on all comers in non-conference play. This year, they were scarred more than usual. They played three ranked teams – Kansas, TCU and Baylor – and lost by an average of 32 points per game. The good news is that after non-conference play, Texas Southern got it together and found a way to make the NCAA Tournament. They won seven straight to end the year before beating NCCU in the First Four. Maybe that momentum continues and they can put a little scare into Xavier.
Xavier Musketeers
The Musketeers made the Elite Eight last year as a No. 11 seed. They battled injuries last season. This season they were much healthier, and they rose all the way to a No. 1 seed. Xavier is led by Trevon Bluiett, one of the top all-time scorers in Xavier and Big East history. He averages 19.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game even though opponents game plan to stop him more than any other Xavier player. Bluiett hits 42.3 percent of three-point shots, a big reason he is such a lethal offensive force.
Xavier also depends on the versatile defense of J.P. Macura, a true defensive pest who hounds the opponent’s top scorer. Macura averages 1.4 steals per game and helps Xavier on the boards. Xavier is strong because it supports Bluiett on offense and defense.
That support and balance are expressed in one fact: Xavier has EIGHT players who average at least seven points per game. Excluding Bluiett, seven players help him out on offense. Xavier has versatile players who perform many different tasks. A good example is Macura. Another good example is Kaiser Gates, who averages 4.6 rebounds per game and does hard work in the paint, but who can also step out and hit threes. He shoots 38.1 percent from three.
