North Carolina vs. Duke Bracket Prediction: March Madness Final Four Odds
The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels have faced each other 257 times since 1920, but matchup No. 258 is the first time they’ll meet in the NCAA Tournament. These teams are based less than 20 kilometres away from each other and hold one of most historic rivalries in college basketball. Another chapter will be added to that rivalry when they face off in the Final Four Saturday night in New Orleans.
Duke has remained fairly steady as 4-point favourites to win on the NCAAB odds. The total has been bumped up half a point and sits at 151.0.
North Carolina vs. Duke NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
These ACC rivals met twice this season. Duke blew out North Carolina 87-67 on Feb. 5, but the Tar Heels got their revenge on March 5, spoiling Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final career regular season game by winning 94-81 as 11-point road underdogs. You can bank on elite offence between these teams as the last six games in this head-to-head series have hit the Over.
North Carolina has won 10 of their last 11 games, defeating No. 9 Marquette, No. 1 Baylor, No. 4 UCLA and No. 15 Saint Peter’s to reach the Final Four. They’re 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games and they’ve covered in all four tournament matchups. The total has gone Under in four of UNC’s last six games, including their last two contests against UCLA and Saint Peter’s.
Duke comes in with 13 wins in their last 15 games and reached the Final Four by defeating No. 15 Cal State, No. 7 Michigan State, No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 4 Arkansas. They’re covered the spread in their last three tournament games, but failed to cover in five games before that. The total has gone Over in eight of the Blue Devils’ last 10 games, including two of four in this tournament.
This is North Carolina’s first appearance in the Final Four since their 2017 national championship winning season. It’s been a little longer for Duke, who is returning to the Final Four for the first time since their own last national championship winning season in 2015. The Blue Devils are now +146 favourites to win the tournament, while the Tar Heels have the longest odds at +476.
North Carolina Tar Heels (8)
The Tar Heels were ahead comfortably at the half against Saint Peter’s, eventually cruising to a 69-49 victory in the Elite Eight. Armando Bacot put up a monster performance, finishing with 20 points and 22 rebounds. Bacot averages team-highs in points per game (16.5), rebounds (12.8) and blocks (1.7). The junior forward also dropped 23 points and seven rebounds against Duke on March 5. Caleb Love and R.J. Davis are also big factors for UNC. Love had 30 points against UCLA in the Sweet 16, while Davis had 30 in the second round upset of No. 1 seed Baylor. Bacot, Love, Davis and Brady Manek all recorded at least 20 points in the win against Duke.
Quick starts have been a staple for North Carolina, who has led by double-digits before halftime in three of four tournament games. A key to this game will be controlling the glass. UNC ranks sixth in the nation in rebounding and that was the difference in their blowout win against Duke a few weeks ago.
Duke Blue Devils (2)
Two freshmen forwards led the way for Duke in the Elite Eight as AJ Griffin finished with 18 points and Pablo Banchero had 15 and seven rebounds. Sophomore centre Mark Williams added 12 points and 12 boards. Banchero averages team-highs in both points (17.1 overall, 18.5 in four tournament games) and rebounds (7.7). He’s the biggest contributor to an offence that averages 80.1 ppg and ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings. The Blue Devils have scored at least 78 points in nine of their last 10 games.
Sophomore guard Jeremy Roach could be Duke’s biggest X-factor in this game. Since Krzyzewski moved Roach to the starting lineup at the beginning of the tournament, Roach has looked like he’s playing with more confidence and he was a key factor late in the wins against Michigan State and Texas Tech, scoring 15 points in each game.
