Michigan State (3) vs. UConn (2) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Sweet 16 Odds
Dan Hurley vs. Tom “Mr. March” Izzo. Hurley has won two titles in the last three years, and Izzo is the most recent Big Ten coach to win a title. Izzo has now led Michigan State to 17 Sweet 16 appearances, and Michigan State is the only remaining squad to have all five starters be program guys. Every other team has had at least one starter transfer in.
This game tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET Friday night from Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. It’s time to break down our best bets for this Big Ten-Big East clash.
The Huskies are slim 1.5-point favourites to win on the March Madness odds, with the total set at 136.5.
Michigan State Spartans vs. UConn Huskies NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Michigan State is 17-15-2 against the spread (ATS) and 16-18 on Over/Unders. Since the Big Ten Tournament started, Michigan State is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U.
UConn is 13-23 ATS and 17-18-1 O/U. Since the Big East Tournament started, UConn is 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
The Under has cashed in the last five meetings between these squads and in nine consecutive games for UConn against Big Ten opposition.
Michigan State Spartans (3)
After an uncharacteristically quick exit in the Big Ten Tournament, Izzo has had his veteran Spartans ready to roll in the Big Dance. Against Louisville in the Round of 32, the Cardinals opened 3-of-19 from three before finishing 13-of-37. Michigan State kept up its hot shooting, going 11-of-26 from deep (42 per cent). Michigan State’s shooting has been a surprise because while they shoot an efficient 36.5 per cent from three on the season, they have a below-average three-point rate.
UConn’s defence focuses on running teams off the three-point line and funnelling them into the lane, but the goal against Michigan State is typically to make them shoot from beyond the arc. If UConn runs them off the three-point line, Michigan State will be happy to oblige. Michigan State, like UConn, is very physical, and they love getting to the free-throw line. They can expose UConn’s overly aggressive defence and pile up free throws, where they shoot a solid 76.5 per cent.
UConn Huskies (2)
UConn can’t match the extent of Michigan State’s exceptional roster continuity, but they have the ultimate senior winner in Alex Karaban. Karaban has been a four-year starter and is a two-time national champion.
In the first round, centre Tarris Reed Jr. stole the spotlight with a ridiculous 31-point, 27-rebound performance against Furman, but against UCLA in the second round, Karaban posted a career-high 27 points. Karaban is the smartest player Hurley has ever been around, and his leadership is unmatched. The only crux in his game, outside of athleticism, is the crux of this entire UConn team; nobody can take over, create on their own shot, and score at will. This team is very balanced but also very dependent on Hurley’s offensive sets.
Michigan State has the same problem, although nobody is better than Jeremy Fears Jr. at creating for others. I do worry about UConn’s offensive success against this Michigan State defence, though, especially with Silas Demary looking extremely limited physically against UCLA, and with Solo Ball’s continued shooting struggles.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win Michigan State vs. UConn?
I personally believe Michigan State is a nightmare matchup for the Huskies. Neither offence is sexy, and while I think Karaban’s clutch gene will show up one last time in his collegiate career, doing all he can to keep UConn in this one down to the very end, it’s Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, Fears, and Coen Carr who will keep Reed Jr., Karaban, and Ball in check.
Offensively, Michigan State will invite UConn’s aggressiveness and find themselves piling up points at the foul line. The main concern here is MSU taking care of the ball against a defence that prides itself on forcing turnovers, but if the ball is in Fears’ hands, MSU will be in a good spot. It will take an incredible shooting day from Braylon Mullins, Karaban, and Ball to give UConn a shot.
Give me the Spartans in a rock fight.
Best Bet: Michigan State moneyline (+114)