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Jeremy Perry
NC-Greensboro (13) vs. Gonzaga (4) Odds: March Madness Prediction
This time, Gonzaga will be starting off against a tricky UNC Greensboro team in the Round of 64. While Gonzaga should win the game, what’s more in question is if they can cover what is a considerable spread (-12.5).
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Gonzaga was fairly average against the spread this season, going 14-16-1 against the spread. They did finish the season covering three of their last four games. As for UNCG, they were a cash cow, going 17-9-1 against the spread. However, they failed to cover three of their last four, which is something to consider when betting on them for March Madness this season.
Gonzaga has the edge in RPI as they were 21st while UNCG was 65th. The Bulldogs also played a tougher schedule as theirs was ranked 125th while UNCG’s was ranked 208th.
NC-Greensboro Spartans
Although UNCG is making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001, they have the makeup of a unit that could spring an upset. They played Virginia on the road and lost by 12, which is respectable given how good the Cavs are this season, and they went on the road and knocked off N.C. State. They’re a slow tempo team that’s going to try and grind out a win here as they are going to milk the clock, play a half court game and try to shorten this contest as much as possible. That’s what they do. They are 318 in pace and they have the 30th most efficient defense according to the Ken Pomeroy ratings, so they have the makeup for this style. The Zags like to run and play uptempo, so this game will be a real contrast in styles.
For the Spartans to win, they need to get hot from beyond the arc. This team shoots a lot of threes and it’s worked for them. They won 27 games and won both the regular and conference tournament titles in the Southern Conference.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga doesn’t lose very often, so that’s going to be an issue for a UNCG team that lacks March Madness experience. The Bulldogs haven’t lost since mid-January and have lost to just three teams not ranked in the Top 25 since the start of last season.
Of course, UNCG will try to slow the game down a lot – that’s what they do – but this might be a bad opponent to try that against. The Bulldogs average a whopping 84.5 points per game. They have three double-digit scorers and figure to have huge advantages in the frontcourt, which should cut-off UNCG’s chances. Gonzaga averages 39.9 rebounds per game, which is 12th in the country. If Gonzaga is getting second-point opportunities from offensive rebounds, this won’t be a close game. The other key factor to keep in mind here is that UNCG lives off the three quite a bit but Gonzaga defends it well. They are allowing opponents to shoot just 35.5 percent from three this season
It’s worth noting that this should be somewhat of a home game for Gonzaga. They’ll be playing in Boise, Idaho, which is familiar territory to them. It’s not a long trip. As for UNCG, it’s a cross-country haul for them.
