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Jeremy Perry
Florida State (9) vs. Missouri (8) Odds: March Madness Prediction
Not much was expected of Missouri after they lost hyped star Michael Porter Jr. just two minutes into their season. They exceeded expectations to make the Tournament and are not buoyed by the return of Porter Jr., who got back in the lineup in the SEC Tournament. Can they figure out the team chemistry and take down a quality Florida State team?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Against the spread this season, Missouri is 16-15. The Tigers have a 43 RPI, and their strength of schedule is solid since the SEC put eight teams into the NCAA Tournament this season, the most in the history of the conference. They are just 4-10 in their last 14 neutral site games.
ATS this season, Florida State is 15-13-1. They did not play a supremely challenging non-conference schedule, but the ACC is always difficult. They are 13-7 in their last 20 neutral site games. For March Madness bettors, it’s worth noting that they have cashed four straight times when having seven or more days rest.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State is a team which was good enough to play Duke closely for 40 minutes in Cameron Indoor Stadium on the Duke campus, and good enough to play Virginia tough for 40 minutes at home. It is also a team which lost to Boston College and Wake Forest, two of the worst teams in the 15-team ACC. This is a volatile team which can be great, horrible, or anywhere in between – more than most teams in the ACC and the country.
The most volatile player on this volatile team is Braian Angola. He hits 36.7 percent of his threes and, when on, makes Florida State extremely dangerous. In a nine-game stretch from December 30 through January 28, he averaged over 17 points per game. Then, in a six-game stretch from January 31 through February 18, he averaged just under six points per game.
Another complication for the Seminoles is that two of their three leading scorers, Phil Cofer and Terance Mann (Angola is the other), hit just 67 percent of their free throws and have struggled late in games this season. If they don’t do the little things right, they aren’t going to win this matchup.
Missouri Tigers
The Tigers are led by Jordan Barnett and Kassius Robertson. They both hit over 41 percent of their three-point shots. Barnett is a more balanced player, averaging 13.7 points and 5.9 rebounds, but Robertson is the better scorer at 16.2 points per game. Robertson has a stepback three-point jumper he likes to use. Florida State might have a hard time guarding him. Missouri hits 38.5 percent of threes, one of the better averages among NCAA Tournament teams.
The big concern for the Tigers is that guard Cullen VanLeer, who was strong and active on defense, got injured and lost for the season in a game against Arkansas on March 3. That will erode Missouri’s depth.
The other thing to watch with this team, which makes this game hard to predict, is that the team is trying to integrate Michael Porter Jr. back into the lineup. Porter played 10 minutes against Georgia after being out for nearly the entire season. He played two minutes against Iowa State in November before getting injured. Missouri played just one SEC Tournament game against Georgia and lost, depriving the team the chance to play a second game and give Porter more of an opportunity to blend into the lineup. It is hard to know how Porter will fare in this game and this NCAA Tournament before he moves to the NBA Draft in June. He’s expected to be a top five pick in the Draft.
If the Tigers can incorporate – and get significant help – from their five-star freshman, they should win. If he throws off their rhythm, they’ll be a one-and-done, just like Porter.
