-
Jeremy Perry
Xavier (1) vs. (9) Florida State Odds: March Madness Prediction
As you might recall, Florida State came in as the higher seed (No. 3) and was stunned by the No. 11 seeded Musketeers. Can the Seminoles return the favor or will Xavier end Florida State’s season for a second year in a row?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Florida State does well against teams that score in bunches, going 6-2-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in their last nine against teams that average at least 77 points per game. They’re also 8-2-3 ATS and 11-2 SU in non-conference games, although they didn’t face many teams like Xavier in the non-ACC portion of their schedule.
Xavier covered 21 of their 34 games this year overall but are just 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in neutral site affairs. They did compile a 12-6 ATS record and 15-3 SU versus teams that score 77 points per game or more. Florida State falls into that category.
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles are very unpredictable. When they are bad, they are horrible. When they’re good, they can compete with elite teams. It is simply very hard to know which version will show up on the given day. Florida State smothered Missouri’s offense on Friday, taking advantage of the fact that Missouri did not have much time to test how Michael Porter, Jr. – a future NBA lottery pick this June – would play after coming off a multi-month injury. Porter was not a smooth or polished player on Friday against Florida State and the Seminoles took advantage. They held Missouri to 20 points in the first half and built a 22-point halftime lead.
They went through a long scoring drought of nearly six minutes in the second half but then shut down Missouri for another long stretch of time. Florida State led 50-42 with just over 11 minutes left and appeared to be in trouble, but it then allowed just two points to Missouri over the next 5:30 to build the lead back to 65-44 and seal the game away. Florida State held Missouri to under 33 percent shooting from the field plus 16 turnovers. FSU’s defense created uncomfortable shots and open-court fast breaks after takeaways which led to easy points. This is exactly the formula FSU will need against Xavier’s elite offense.
Xavier Musketeers
Xavier cruised past Texas Southern, 102-83, in the first round of the tournament, getting a predictably good day from its best players in a high-scoring shootout. Trevon Bluiett is Xavier’s best player and scorer. He poured in 26 points while teammate J.P. Macura stole his thunder a little bit with 29. Kerem Kanter scored 24 points, enabling that trio – Bluiett, Macura and Kanter – to account for 79 of Xavier’s 102 points.
Xavier shot almost 55 percent from the field, almost 50 percent from three-point range, but missed 11 free throws and got only six points from normally reliable guard Quentin Goodin. He will need to be better against Florida State, but the good news for Xavier is that Goodin didn’t have to be at his best against Texas Southern. He should be able to answer the call. Xavier committed 13 turnovers, which seems like a lot, but in a game with 185 total points and a very high number of possessions, that isn’t as bad as first assumed. The good news is that Xavier’s offense appears to be in excellent form.
