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Jeremy Perry
Gonzaga (4) vs. Florida State (9) Odds: March Madness Sweet 16 Prediction
The West has been broken wide open by the losses of top-seeded Xavier and second-seeded North Carolina. Florida State was one of the teams that stunned a top seed, taking out No. 1 Xavier in their latest contest. Can they upset another higher-seeded team and make it to the Elite Eight?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Gonzaga is 15-18 ATS this season but just 1-1 so far in the NCAA Tournament. They have on neutral sites, going 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS. They’ve been an neutral site favorite of 3.5 to six points just twice this season (they’re in that range here) and they’ve won and covered both times.
Florida State is 15-13 ATS and has done well against high-scoring teams like Gonzaga. They have covered seven of nine meetings with teams who score 77 points or more. They’re also 9-2-2 in non-conference games (13-1 SU) and 16-10 SU against teams with a winning record.
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles were down by 12 points to Xavier midway through the second half and seemed to be done. Xavier was a No. 1 seed, playing confidently, and the Musketeers beat Florida State by 25 points in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Everything was going Xavier’s way, and Florida State looked lost.
Then everything changed. The Seminoles prevented the deficit from growing larger and – when down 66-57 with only a handful of minutes left – made their run. FSU produced an 18-4 run in the game’s closing minutes to stun Xavier, 75-70, giving coach Leonard Hamilton his first Sweet 16 at Florida State since 2011.
Florida State gained 46 bench points to Xavier’s 24. Four Florida State reserves scored at least nine points and three scored at least 10. Florida State has the quality depth to hang with Gonzaga. FSU also produced 10 steals, converting many of them into fast-break baskets to fuel the late comeback. That will be hard to replicate against Gonzaga’s guards, but FSU has to find a way to get more of those easy transition buckets in this game.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Zags were hot against Ohio State, a marked contrast to their sluggish first-round win over UNC-Greensboro two days earlier. Gonzaga hit over 53 percent of its field goal attempts against Ohio State. Rui Hachimura hit 9 of 11 field goals while teammate Zach Norvell, Jr. hit 6 of 11 three-point shots. The Zags posted 90 points despite hitting only 19 of 31 free throws. Imagine how well this team can score when it hits foul shots at an 80-percent clip.
Gonzaga struggled against UNC-Greensboro, but Norvell hit a tie breaking three-pointer late in the game. Norvell clearly carried his confidence into the Ohio State game, scoring 28 points and looking like Gonzaga’s best offensive threat from the perimeter. A fundamental challenge for Gonzaga in this game is to carry its offensive form in the Ohio State game to this new stage in the NCAA Tournament. The Zags found their way on offense in Boise and need to stay on the winning path in Los Angeles.
