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Charlie Grant
UMBC (16) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (1): March Madness Odds, Prediction
Virginia basketball has come a long way since head coach Tony Bennett took over the program in 2009. The Cavaliers have won the ACC regular season championship three times, the conference tournament twice, and they’ve qualified for the NCAA Tournament five straight years. Will this finally be the year Virginia makes some noise in the Big Dance as the top overall seed in the tournament?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Virginia heads into this March Madness matchup fresh off its ACC tournament title and owner of 31-2 straight up record (20-9-1). The value backing the Cavaliers against the spread dried up toward the end of the season. Bennett’s team went 2-4 ATS in its final four regular season games. The Cavaliers haven’t been a good ATS bet in the first round of the tournament; they’re 1-4 ATS in the Round of 64 since 2012.
UMBC are the surprise winners from the American East conference. The Retrievers went 24-10 SU and 2-2-1 ATs this season. It’s just their second appearance in the NCAA Tournament with the last coming in 2008 when they were bounced by Georgetown in the first round.
Oddsmakers have set Virginia as a big 22.5-point favourite on the March Madness betting odds board.
MD Baltimore County Retrievers
The Retrievers shocked mid major fans when they upset regular season champion Vermont in the American East tournament championship game. UMBC won outright as 9.5-point underdog and lost its previous two games against Vermont by a combined 43 points.
Maryland, a middle of the road Big Ten side that didn’t make the field, beat the Retrievers by 21 points back in December. UMBC is led by senior guard and VCU transfer Jairus Lyles, who finished second in the American East conference scoring at 20.2
Virginia Cavaliers
It might not be pretty basketball but Bennett’s slowed-down, methodical pace and suffocating defense yields great results for Virginia. The Cavaliers allow the fewest points per game in the country at 53.4 and their opponents shot just 37.1 percent from the field.
Sophomore guard Kyle Guy leads Virginia in scoring at 14.1 points per game and he’s making nearly 40 percent of his attempts from 3-point land this season. He hurt his knee in the regular season finale against Notre Dame but he was active and played well in all three of Virginia’s contests in the ACC tourney.
