Arkansas (4) vs. Arizona (1) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Sweet 16 Odds
The NCAA Tournament’s West Region semifinals conclude late Thursday night from San Jose, Calif., as No. 4 seed Arkansas of the SEC faces No. 1 seed Arizona of the Big 12. The Wildcats are -7.5 on the college basketball odds with a total of 166.5.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
The winner of this matchup faces the winner of Thursday’s earlier game from San Jose featuring No. 11 seed Texas and No. 2 Purdue in Saturday’s regional final for a trip to the Final Four.
Arizona is the West Region favourite at -130, and I had the Wildcats reaching the national title game before this tournament tipped. Nothing has changed my mind, and they may well win it all on April 6 in Indianapolis, priced as +200 second-favourite behind Duke. No team from the Western portion of the United States has won the men’s NCAA Tournament since Arizona way back in 1997 for the school’s first and only national title. But UA has lost four straight Sweet 16 games; since 2009, Arizona is 10-0 in the Round of 32 and 3-6 in the Sweet 16.
Coached by Hall of Famer John Calipari, Arkansas (+700 to win the West) is appearing in its fifth Sweet 16 in the last six years but lost the past two after winning the first two. It is the school’s fifth Sweet 16 appearance as a No. 4 seed, matching Syracuse for the second most in tournament history. Louisville leads with six.
The Razorbacks lead the all-time series 6-2, but the clubs haven’t played since way back on Nov. 17, 1995, in Fayetteville. Their only meeting in the NCAA Tournament was in the 1994 Final Four with the Hogs winning on the way to the national championship. Arizona hasn’t faced an SEC foe in the Dance since beating Ole Miss in the 2001 Sweet 16.
Arkansas Razorbacks (4)
Arkansas finished tied for second in the SEC regular-season standings and then lost to Vanderbilt in the conference title game to earn a No. 4 seed in the Dance. The Razorbacks are led by star freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr., a lock top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA draft.
In this tournament, Acuff has totalled 60 points in wins over No. 13 seed Hawaii and No. 12 High Point – no doubt Arkansas has had a pretty easy road to the Sweet 16. Acuff has become only the third player all-time to total at least 60 points and 10 assists in the first and second rounds of an NCAA Tournament. He simply can’t get into foul trouble on Thursday.
The Hogs’ No. 2 scorer is freshman Meleek Thomas (15.6 PPGA), and Arizona’s top two scorers are also freshmen. This, then, marks the first matchup in the Sweet 16 or later in tournament history with freshmen as each team’s top two scorers. Arkansas is on a two-game NCAA Tournament winning streak against No. 1 seeds (2022 Sweet 16 vs. Gonzaga and 2023 second round vs. Kansas) after losing its first 10 games vs. top seeds.
Arizona Wildcats (1)
Expect Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd to get a nice raise soon. For one thing, he deserves it. Second, blue-blood North Carolina fired coach Hubert Davis this week and is expected to gauge Lloyd’s interest, although he has always been a West Coast guy.
The Wildcats have had little trouble in this Dance dispatching No. 16 seed LIU and No. 11 Utah State. They were Big 12 regular-season and tournament champions and have won 11 games in a row, the second-longest streak nationally.
As successful as Arizona has been over the years in the regular season, it hasn’t reached an Elite Eight since 2015. Thursday marks Arizona’s fourth all-time Sweet 16 contest played in California as a No. 1 seed. It won each of the previous three but then lost in the Elite Eight in each.
While the Wildcats’ top two scorers are freshmen in guard Brayden Burries (16.0 PPG) and forward Koa Peat (13.7 PPG), it was senior guard Jaden Bradley who was named Big 12 Player of the Year.
