Penn (14) vs. Illinois (3) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
The South Region continues Thursday night with a major seeding mismatch as No. 3 Illinois faces No. 14 Penn at 9:25 p.m. ET on TNT. The winner will advance to face either No. 11 VCU or No. 6 North Carolina in the second round.
Illinois is a massive 24.5-point favourite on the March Madness odds, while the total is pegged at 150.5.
Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Illinois boasts the No. 2 offence in the country, while Penn’s offence ranks outside the top 200. The Illini are also elite on the glass and rank among the best teams nationally in rebounding margin, while Penn is closer to average in that category. However, Illinois forces turnovers at the lowest rate in the country, meaning Penn should still generate plenty of shot attempts.
The Quakers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games, posting a 7-0 ATS record in their last seven games as an underdog. However, they’ve dropped 10 straight contests against opponents from the Big Ten. Illinois is also 8-0 in their last eight meetings with Ivy League schools, they are 13-4 straight up in their last 17 games played in March. The Over has cashed in six of Illinois’ previous nine contests and four of their last five as a favourite. Penn’s results have been the opposite; the Under is 13-1 in their last 14.
Penn Quakers (14)
Penn returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018 after an unforgettable Ivy League Tournament run under first-year head coach Fran McCaffery, who has now led four different programs to March Madness.
The Quakers entered the conference tournament as the No. 3 seed and produced two wins to claim the automatic bid. They first defeated Harvard in overtime without senior captain Ethan Roberts, who missed the game due to a concussion. In the championship against Yale, Penn trailed by four points with just seconds remaining before TJ Power hit a clutch three-pointer. After Yale briefly extended the lead, Power drilled another three at the buzzer to force overtime, and Penn eventually secured an 88-84 victory.
Power, the program’s first five-star recruit, via Duke and Virginia, earned Ivy League Tournament MVP honours after posting 44 points and 14 rebounds across the two games. Offensively, Penn relies heavily on its senior forward trio of Roberts (18.0 PPG), Power (16 PPG), and Michael Zanoni (11 PPG). Zanoni shoots 38.2 per cent from three-point range. The Quakers are one of the nation’s best perimeter shooting teams, ranking 11th nationally in three-point percentage, and their ability to get hot from outside could be their only realistic path to keeping this game competitive.
Illinois Fighting Illini (3)
The Illini currently hold the second-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating of the KenPom era, sitting at 131.2. Head coach Brad Underwood has built a deep and versatile roster led by freshman point guard Keaton Wagler, who averages over 18 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game while shooting better than 40 per cent from three. Wagler has already shown superstar potential, including a 46-point performance against Purdue earlier this season.
The supporting cast is equally impressive. Kylan Boswell provides stability in the backcourt after returning from a broken hand, while Andrej Stojakovic and David Mirkovic both average over 12 points per game. Illinois also features one of the most unique front-courts in the country with the 7-foot Ivisic brothers, Tomislav and Zvonimir, helping the Illini become the tallest team in college basketball. That size advantage contributes to a top-10 national ranking in rebounding margin.
March Madness: Who Will Win Penn vs. Illinois?
TJ Power is capable of delivering another standout performance, and the Quakers’ perimeter shooting gives them at least a theoretical chance to keep things interesting early. However, the overall talent and size disparity heavily favours Illinois. The Illini dominate the interior on both ends of the floor and generate efficient scoring opportunities at an elite level.
Penn’s defence is vulnerable inside the arc, exactly where Illinois thrives, shooting over 58 per cent on two-point attempts this season.
Best Bet: Over 149.5