NCAA March Madness Elite Eight Predictions, Best Bets

No one can say that the March Madness in 2023 hasn’t seen its share of memorable storylines, iconic finishes, and jaw-dropping upsets. The madness continued on Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 contests, as the Crimson Tide and Houston Cougars were ousted, meaning that of the eight schools remaining none are top seeds from their regions. We also witnessed a bonkers overtime contest between Michigan State and Kansas State.

What might the Elite Eight possibly have in store?

As always, don’t forget to check out the NCAA odds for individual games and the NCAA Futures.

Florida Atlantic (9) vs Kansas State (3)

The Florida Atlantic Owls (34-3) continue their remarkable run this year’s tournament. Their second-half performance against the Tennessee Volunteers “cooed” and awed. Down 22-27 in a relatively low-scoring affair, things looked dire until Johnell Davis (15 points) and friends kicked things up a notch. Kansas State (26-90) survived one of this year’s best games, a 98-93 thriller against the Michigan State Trojans.

The Wildcats have pounced on defences with relative ease since the tournament began. Even their Sweet 16 contest against the Trojans was tied at 82 by the end of regulation. It will be interesting to see how they matchup up against Florida Atlantic, a unit that has limited opposing offences to very low scores so far. No one has been able to shoot well against them, but they also haven’t face a side like Kansas State who has been lights out. More than once in this tournament the Wildcats shot well over 50 per cent.

In this instance, the over on 144.0 is interesting.

UConn (4) vs Gonzaga (3)

Speaking of teams with efficient scoring, how about those Bulldogs? Gonzaga (31-5) is the highest-scoring team in the entire country. Not its regional conference. The United States. At 87.0 points per contest on average they can afford to have a serviceable if unspectacular defence (73 points per tilt, good for third in the WCC). They needed all the firepower they could muster in the second half against UCLA in the Sweet 16. Julian Strawther’s three-point shot from the logo with seven seconds left is one of the most iconic moments in this year’s tournament.

So can the UConn Huskies (28-8) weather such a storm? They’ve battered and bruised their way through the first three rounds. None of their games was decided by less than 15 points. But they haven’t been challenged by a bulldozer like the Bulldogs. While both schools have had very good seasons and fully merit their place in the Elite Eight, this feels like the kind of game where UConn will need Gonzaga to simply suffer an “off day” to make it out alive.

It can be close, but the Bulldogs with the spread (+2) feels right.

Creighton (6) vs San Diego State (5)

So someone was finally able to school Princeton. To some, it was about time, although surely that school was having the time of its life partaking in the Sweet 16. Creighton (24-12) did the deed, winning 86-75. The Bluejays reach their second Elite Eight in school history (the last time was during WWII!). More interesting is the fact that this was its second Sweet 16 game in three seasons. Is the school turning things around?

The San Diego State Aztecs’ (30-6) first big challenge came in the previous round when they faced the favoured Alabama Crimson Tide. Although they themselves did not shoot a great game (37.7 per cent, rather average), they made Alabama look even worse at 32.4 per cent. It was a defensive masterclass, especially when shielding themselves from three-point shots, of which the Tide could only convert 11.1 per cent. The spread in this game is spectacularly close at +/- 1.5. A real toss-up. The Bluejays are favoured, and with such an unexpected Elite Eight matchup, it’s genuinely difficult to predict.

In a case like this, take the underdog Aztecs with the +1.5 spread. If they lose by one you don’t look that bad!

 Miami (5) vs Texas (2)

The Longhorns (29-8) are one of the few truly big dogs remaining in the tournament along with Gonzaga, Kansas State, and UConn. They now get to play the Miami Hurricanes (28-7), the school that ejected the number one seeded Houston Cougars out of the tournament. Texas didn’t have it easy against Xavier, but were the better team all the same, winning 83-71.

Situations like these are a double-edged sword of sorts. On the one hand, Miami’s win over Houston was as impressive as it was unlikely. For those reasons alone Texas needs to be wary and ready. On the other hand, can the Floridian ensemble keep carrying that momentum? Defeating a number one seed can take a lot out of a team, emotionally and mentally. Like all the Elite Eight contests, this one is tricky to gauge. Interestingly, it happens to be the one with the widest spread at 4.5. The time feels right for Texas, especially with Miami doing them a huge favour against Houston.

Longhorns with the -4.5 spread.