Texas (11) vs. Purdue (2) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Sweet 16 Odds
The first game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 round is from the West Region and San Jose specifically on Thursday as No. 11 seed Texas of the SEC faces No. 2 Purdue of the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are -7.5 with a total of 148.5 on the college basketball odds.
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
The winner of this matchup faces the winner of Thursday’s later game from San Jose featuring No. 4 seed Arkansas and No. 1 Arizona in Saturday’s regional final for a trip to the Final Four, and I expect that to be the Wildcats. Purdue is +200 to reach its first Final Four since 2024 when it lost in the national title game to UConn. Texas hasn’t been there since 2003 and is the overall longest national semifinal shot on the board at +1400. And as the only double-digit seed left, it should be a long shot.
Texas has won each of its last three Sweet 16 appearances but all were as a No. 2 seed. Its only win in this round as the lower-seeded team came in 1990 when it was a No. 10 seed and beat No. 6 Xavier before losing in the regional final. Purdue has lost six of its last eight appearances in the Sweet 16, which is tied with Arizona for the most-such losses in this round since 2009.
The Longhorns are 4-2 all-time against the Boilermakers, and they have split four NCAA Tournament meetings, the last a Purdue win in the 2022 second round. The five meetings will mark the most for either school against an opponent in the Dance, and it’s the latest round they have met in it.
Texas Longhorns (11)
UT is under first-year coach Sean Miller, and he and Iowa’s Ben’s McCollum are the only head coaches still standing in this tournament in his first season at the school. Texas barely snuck into the Dance and landed in the First Four as a No. 11 seed but knocked off NC State thanks to a late 3-pointer from Tramon Mark. UT then upset No. 6 BYU and No. 3 Gonzaga in the first two rounds, priced +7 against the Zags last Saturday.
Camden Heide hit a game-sealing 3-pointer late in that one as Texas became the first team in five years to go from the NCAA Tournament’s First Four to the Sweet 16 and sixth team ever to do so. Heide, incidentally, previously spent two seasons at Purdue.
UT now has 11 wins as a double-digit seed all-time in the Dance, most in history. It tries to become just the fourth school ever to reach the Elite Eight with at least 14 losses. Miller’s club was the most experienced in the entire field led by junior guard and star Dailyn Swain, who leads the club in scoring (17.4 PPG), rebounding (7.5 RPG) and assists (3.5 APG). He was the SEC Newcomer of the Year after transferring in from Xavier to follow Miller to Austin. UT has outright won four of its past five as an underdog.
Purdue Boilermakers (2)
Purdue was the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and didn’t quite live up to that in the regular season in finishing sixth in the Big Ten. But the Boilermakers stormed to the conference tournament title, upsetting regular-season champion and NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed Michigan in the final.
Coach Matt Painter’s team had little trouble in Round 1 of the Dance but was pushed in Round 2 by Miami (Fla.) before pulling away late. That marked Purdue’s first NCAA Tournament win when trailing at the half since 2010 – it had lost seven in a row.
It is a fabulous offensive team led by two-time All-American Braden Smith, who last time out became the NCAA’s all-time assists leader career, breaking Bobby Hurley’s mark in Round 1. The Boilers are shooting 57.9 per cent from deep in this tournament, the highest per centage entering the Sweet 16 all-time with a minimum of 20 attempts.
Purdue has nine NCAA Tournament losses against double-digit seeds in history, second-most nationally. Three of those defeats came in the past six years. The Boilermakers will advance this time but work for it. The over is 9-3 in Purdue’s past 12.
