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Jeremy Perry
South Dakota State vs. Providence Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have not lost in three months. The Providence Friars won the Big East regular-season championship for the first time in their history. Two special teams having special seasons meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. It’s a fascinating matchup of overachievers, and the lower-seeded team is being given a great chance to win this game.
South Dakota State vs. Providence Point Spread and Betting
The Jackrabbits come into this game having covered five of their last six (5-0-1) versus teams with a winning record. They’ve been reliable as a dog this season, going 7-2-1 in their last 10 as a dog and 10-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 as a neutral-site dog.
Meanwhile, Providence has done well against winning teams. They are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 versus teams above .500. They are coming off a loss but are 5-2 ATS off a straight up loss and 11-4 in their last 15 coming off an ATS loss.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits (13)
If a No. 13 seed is just a 2-point underdog to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, it must be pretty special … and South Dakota State is special. The Jackrabbits have not lost a game since Dec. 15. Alongside Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference, South Dakota State did not lose a single game in its own conference, the Summit League. SDSU went unbeaten in the conference regular season and then won the Summit League Tournament to advance to the Big Dance.
The Jackrabbits space the floor and have a lot of quality shooters. They won a neutral-site game against Washington State in Spokane, which was essentially a road game for them and they don’t fear high-major programs. They also were tested plenty of times this season, including by Summit League rival North Dakota State. The Jackrabbits’ ability to win close, tough games against North Dakota State – three wins by a combined total of 14 points – shows that they aren’t just a freewheeling team that blows out opponents. No, they can also grind out wins late in games.
Providence Friars (4)
Providence has one of the best records in the country in games decided by five points or fewer and they are 3-0 in overtime games. The Friars play great late-game defence. They hit their free throws late in games and earn a lot of trips to the foul line. Providence has winning players who make winning plays.
The obvious concern with Providence is that after a season in which the team has won so many close games – and lost very few of them – the laws of averages are bound to even out and boomerang back in the Friars’ face, causing them a tough and stinging loss. It could happen, but one also needs to trust that if this game gets tight, the fact that Providence has come through in the clutch so many times this year makes this team worth trusting. We could have a weird situation in which South Dakota State is more likely to win this game by 10 points, but Providence is more likely to win by four points.
