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Jeremy Perry
South Dakota State (12) vs. Ohio State (5) Odds : March Madness Prediction
Virtually nothing was expected of the Ohio State Buckeyes in the preseason but after posting a record of 24-8 overall – 15-3 in the Big Ten – they have been one of the biggest surprises of the college basketball season. Stocked with a new head coach that’s revived the program and the Big Ten Player of the Year, can they avoid a first-round stumble against a quality team from South Dakota State?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Against the spread this season, Ohio State went 15-15 this season. Ohio State’s’ RPI is 20, and its strength of schedule was hurt due to the Big Ten’s unexpected down year. Only four Big Ten teams made the NCAA Tournament, a far cry from the six to eight teams which often represent the conference in the field of 68. This makes betting on the March Madness tournament this year less predictable.
South Dakota State was 19-9 ATS this season. The Jackrabbits’ RPI is 37. Their strength of schedule was – like most teams from one-bid conferences such as the Summit League – limited by the lack of exposure to high-level opponents during conference play.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Jackrabbits are not going to be intimidated in this spot. This is a team that’s been to the tournament three years in a row. They enter this year’s dance on a hot streak as they’ve won 11 straight.
The player to watch on the Jackrabbits is Mike Daum, who many people feel is a good enough player to have a shot at an NBA career as a stretch four. The Summit League Player of the Year averages a double-double (23.8 points, 10.4 rebounds) and can take over the game.
He doesn’t do it on his own, though. His dominance creates a lot of space on the outside, which South Dakota State takes advantage of. They shoot over 40% from three and have hit the sixth-most in the nation. If Ohio State doesn’t carefully guard the arc, they could be one-and-done.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes were not expected to do anything of consequence this year. They lost several players to transfers. Lauded coach Thad Matta, who took the program to two Final Fours, was fired. The coaching search for his replacement was messy. But they eventually found Butler coach Chris Holtmann, who has subsequently done a remarkable job of turning around the program.
The other key, besides Bates-Diop, will be rebounding where Ohio State finished second in the Big Ten with a +5.3 rebounding margin. If they protect the glass and create second-chance opportunities for themselves, they’re going to have a great chance of covering.
South Dakota State is a good offensive team but Ohio State thrived against this type of unit all season. They have won seven straight (covering the spread six times) against teams who score 77+ points per game. That’s because their defense is underrated, ranking 16th in the Ken Pomeroy adjusted defensive efficiency.
