UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
The Bears are 10.5-point favourites on the college basketball odds.
UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
The winner of this game faces either No. 6 Creighton (my pick) or No. 11 NC State on Sunday. No. 3 seeds like Baylor are 126-22 against No. 14 seeds since the field expanded to 64 in 1985. The third seed has lost just nine times this century with all four advancing in 2022. The last such upset was Abilene Christian by a point over Texas in 2021.
UC Santa Barbara tied with UC Irvine for the Big West regular-season title and beat Cal State Fullerton 72-62 last Saturday for the conference tournament title. It’s the seventh NCAA Tournament appearance for the Gauchos and first since 2021 when they were a No. 12 seed and lost in the first round 63-62 to No. 5 Creighton, so we could have a rematch Sunday.
Baylor is in the Big Dance for the 15th time and is 21-15 in the previous 14 trips, including 18-9 in the Scott Drew era. The Bears won it all in 2021 by upsetting unbeaten Gonzaga in the title game. Last year, they lost in Round 2 in overtime to eventual national runner-up North Carolina.
These schools have split two all-time meetings but haven’t played since December 1970.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
This will be UCSB’s first game against a power conference school this season. Sophomore guard Ajay Mitchell, who was born in Belgium, was the Big West Player of the Year and first-team All-Big West and is averaging 16.4 points and 5.1 assists. He had 20 points, four rebounds and four assists in the conference tournament title game win over Cal State Fullerton to earn tournament MVP honours.
Teammate and senior forward Miles Norris (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg) was named second-team all-conference. In Big West action this season, the Gauchos shot 56.4% from two-point range and enter on a seven-game winning streak. Coach Joe Pasternack generally only plays six players heavy minutes, so early foul trouble could spell doom. The Gauchos are 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 games.
Baylor Bears
Baylor rarely was at full strength this season due to injury, etc. It finished tied for third in the Big 12 regular season and was upset in its conference tournament opener by Iowa State. That alone should be reason to NOT pick the Bears to cut down the nets in nearby Houston on April 3 as no team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. In addition, each of the past four No. 3 seeds to lose to a No. 14 seed came from the Big 12.
Scott Drew’s team is one of four teams in the country to be a Top 3 seed in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments along with Kansas, Gonzaga and Purdue. Overall, the Bears are 8-10 this season vs. the 2023 NCAA Tournament field, including wins over Top 3 seeds Kansas, UCLA, Texas and Gonzaga. Freshman Keyonte George, a sure-fire 2023 NBA lottery pick, leads the team in averaging 15.8 ppg. Defence is usually a Drew calling card, but Baylor ranks just 104th in defensive efficiency this season. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their past seven NCAA Tournament games.
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