Illinois (3) vs. UConn (2) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Final Four Odds
After a steal and an unbelievable three at the buzzer from freshman Braylon Mullins, UConn is miraculously in its third Final Four in three years.
In November, on Black Friday, UConn and Illinois met in Madison Square Garden, and UConn’s defence was the difference in a 74-61 win. Analyzing the box score now makes almost no sense compared to who these teams and their players are today.
Illinois is a slim 1.5-point favourite to win on the March Madness odds, with the total set at 139.5.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UConn Huskies NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
UConn is 15-23 against the spread (ATS) and 18-19-1 on Over/Unders for game totals. Illinois, on the other hand, is 22-14 ATS and 15-21 on Over/Unders.
Since the Big East Tournament began, UConn is 5-2 ATS and 3-4 O/U. Since the Big Ten Tournament started, Illinois is 4-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U. Each of the Illini’s last three games in the NCAA Tournament has gone Under the game total.
Illinois Fighting Illini (3)
Illinois’ offence is the most efficient in the history of KenPom, and they do it with unselfishness and elite spacing because everyone on the floor is capable of knocking down outside shots at all times. The way they swing the ball around to generate open looks is truly a thing of beauty.
UConn will challenge them by contesting every three. The Huskies held the Illini to one of their lowest point totals of the year back in November. Andrej Stojakovic will need to be a difference maker this time around, as he’s the one guy on this Illinois team who can slash exceptionally well and get to the rim at will.
Keaton Wagler will also be the best all-around scorer on the floor at all times. Stojakovic and Wagler were held to six combined points against UConn the first time around, but both have grown immensely in their roles and confidence in the intervening months. Illinois’ biggest advantage here is the glass, and if they generate the type of second-chance looks they can, and if they get Tarris Reed Jr. in foul trouble like they did the first time, I really like Illinois’ chances.
UConn Huskies (2)
UConn got here on the back of its defence and the sheer willpower of head coach Dan Hurley. When you break down this roster, none of the individual parts really wow. Yes, Tarris Reed was awesome against a terrific Duke front-court, as he’s been most of the season. But he’s an old-school back-to-the-basket centre that is effective around the rim with incredible footwork and touch.
Alex Karaban, the two-time national champion, one of the sport’s smartest players, and a true catch-and-shoot sharpshooter, is limited in his creation. Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball out of the backcourt can be very good but lack aggression and consistency. Mullins can really shoot it, but his slight frame and streaky shooting keep him from taking over games.
The defence, though, remains connected and awesome. Per KenPom, UConn’s defence ranks ninth. Now, they will be tested in Indianapolis against the No. 1 offence in the country. What goes in the Huskies’ favour is their ability to pressure the ball and run shooters off the three-point line, where Illinois gets a vast majority of its shots from.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win Illinois vs. UConn?
UConn doesn’t have a single player who can truly take over. Illinois has several. Illinois seeks revenge for the trouncing UConn handed them in the Elite Eight a couple of years ago, and for the 13-point loss in November. UConn’s defence and connectedness have taken them far, but it ends here.
Best Bet: Illinois -2.5 (-110)
