South Florida (11) vs. Louisville (6) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
Picking the right upsets can make all the difference when it comes to the first two days of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
One of the trendiest first-round upset picks is South Florida, the No. 11 seed in the East Region. The Bulls face sixth-seeded Louisville on Thursday in Buffalo at 1:30 p.m. ET.
The Cardinals won three of their last four coming in, but dropped a 78-73 decision to Miami in an ACC Tournament quarterfinal matchup. Freshman phenom Mikel Brown Jr.’s status is of vital importance to coach Pat Kelsey’s squad.
The Bulls come into Thursday’s contest on an 11-game winning streak, including the American Conference Tournament title. South Florida is going dancing for the first time in 14 years.
Louisville is a 5.5-point favourite to win on the March Madness odds, while the total is pegged at 165.5.
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
The Bulls, who are just 1-3 straight up as underdogs this season, are +5.5 against Louisville. They have gone 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games, and have played to the under in nine of their last 10.
Louisville is 22-7 as a favourite this season, but just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games. They have played to the under in five of seven.
South Florida Bulls (11)
USF has gone 19-3 since the start of January, losing three games by a combined five points. So, how much you like this trendy pick depends on how much you respect their conference.
The only tournament teams the Bulls have beaten this year are Kennesaw State, Utah State, and UMBC. They did hold firm in a 104-93 defeat at Alabama in mid-December. That was the last time coach Bryan Hodgson’s side lost by more than one possession.
South Florida is second in the nation in rebounding with 42.7 per game, trailing only the defending champion Florida Gators.
American Conference Player and Defensive Player of the Year Izaiyah Nelson (15.7 ppg, 9.6 REB) leads the way, while guard Wes Enis led the team with 16.7 points per game and set the school’s single-season record with 107 made three-pointers.
No. 11 seeds have won a first-round game in each of the past 21 tournaments, going back to 2006.
Louisville Cardinals (6)
Few teams come into the tournament as reliant on the health of one player as Louisville. Brown Jr. averaged 18.2 points and 4.7 rebounds in 21 games, and the freshman is considered a lock to be an NBA lottery pick in June.
The Cardinals went 16-5 with Brown Jr., and just 7-5 without. They have won three of four since he last played against Clemson at the end of February.
With Brown Jr.’s status constantly in flux, senior Ryan Conwell is the stabilizing force on the team. He leads the team in scoring at 18.7 points per game, and has averaged 20.5 over the last six.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win South Florida vs. Louisville?
I am always wary of the most popular upset picks. They often do not pan out. But South Florida is as hot as they come right now.
I don’t know if Hodgson and the Bulls can pull off the mild upset, but they are a great bet to cover the 5.5-point spread as dogs. Look for Nelson and Enis to keep the Bulls in it throughout, but for Conwell and Isaac McNeely to shoot the Cardinals to victory, 83-79.