-
Jeremy Perry
San Diego State (11) vs. Houston (6) Odds: March Madness Prediction
This is a West Region game which will feature two teams who don’t often play in March Madness. The Houston Cougars grinded out a number of games in the AAC to easily qualify while the San Diego State Aztecs needed to win their conference tournament to get in. However, the Aztecs have won nine straight, scoring 79 points or more in five of those games. Can they keep it up and stun the No. 6 seed?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Against the spread this season, Houston went 18-10-1. The Cougars’ RPI is a very strong 18. Their strength of schedule was boosted by three close matchups with a Cincinnati Bearcats side that did exceptionally well this year as well as two with Wichita State. The Cougars were also helped by a blowout win over Arkansas, a solid SEC team which made the NCAA Tournament as a number seven seed.
San Diego State went 20-10 ATS this season. The Aztecs’ RPI is 62. They needed to win the Mountain West Tournament to get into the NCAA field. They would not have been an at-large candidate due to a lack of quality wins. Their strength of schedule would not have made the grade.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs were renewed by Steve Fisher, the coach who led Michigan to consecutive national championship games in the early 1990s but then fell out of favor amidst the scandals which affected the Wolverine program. Fisher got a fresh start in San Diego and led SDSU to several NCAA Tournaments, including the Sweet 16 in 2011. Last year, Fisher decided to retire. He handed the reins of the program to assistant Brian Dutcher, who has continued the program’s ascent.
This is a team that’s built on a balance and defense, but their offense has really come to life of late. As mentioned, they’ve scored 79 or more in five of their last nine games. On defense, they rely a lot on two sizable bigs in Malik Pope and Jalen McDaniels, both of whom are 6’10.
This game won’t be a blowout either way as both teams are strong defensively. March Madness bettors should take the Aztecs with the points as they should cover and have a reasonable change to win outright.
Houston Cougars
Houston is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010. Coach Kelvin Sampson has revived and fixed programs throughout his career, and a patient process in building Houston over the past four years has finally paid off with a tournament bid. While San Diego State might have better balance, they don’t have a guy like Rob Gray.
Regardless of their experience, Houston has genuinely proven they deserve to be here. They faced quality opponents all year and stymied many of them with their defense. Their defense ranks 18th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted ratings, which means this game will be a grind for San Diego State.
