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Jeremy Perry
Texas A&M (7) vs. Michigan (3) Odds: March Madness Sweet 16 Prediction
This does not, however, mean that they should feel remotely comfortable about facing the seventh-seeded Texas A&M Aggies.
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Michigan is now 23-13 ATS on the season. They are 13-6 ATS and 15-4 SU in their last 19 against teams with a winning record. They’re a whopping 24-3 SU as a favorite this season (16-11 ATS in those games).
Texas A&M was 13-16 ATS during the regular season, heading into the NCAA Tournament and has covered their first two games. It’s interesting to note that they don’t play many defensive teams like Michigan but in their two games against an opponent that allows 64 points or less, the Aggies won both meetings and covered this season. They’re just 15-12 against teams with a winning record, though, and 13-14 ATS in those games.
Texas A&M Aggies
The importance of Michigan’s three-point shooting is magnified by what Texas A&M did to North Carolina this past weekend. North Carolina hardly ever loses NCAA Tournament games played in the state of North Carolina, but it happened against A&M, and that final score was a blowout. The reason? Carolina hit just six of 31 three-pointers. Michigan’s three-point shooting has to be on point because, if it isn’t, A&M has the better low-post players in this game, just as it did against the Tar Heels.
Tyler Davis went off against North Carolina, scoring 18 points and grabbing nine rebounds while blocking three shots and hitting 7 of 9 field goals. D.J. Hogg played one of his best games of the season against UNC, scoring 14 points while collecting eight rebounds, handing out four assists, and swiping two steals. A&M’s Robert Williams plucked 13 rebounds and blocked two shots. A&M is so powerful inside that if Michigan can’t do anything from the perimeter, A&M will hold all the cards.
The feeling here is that Michigan will lift its three-point shooting enough to make a positive difference.
Michigan Wolverines
The biggest key to this game for Michigan is to shoot three-pointers at a reasonable rate. Shooting threes is something coach John Beilein depends on from his teams. Michigan has to be reasonably efficient from the three-point arc if it wants to play the kind of game it wants. Michigan was just 8 of 30 from three-point range against Houston, which is exactly why the Wolverines were very close to losing. They advanced only because it hit a three-pointer, as Jordan Poole buried a 30-footer at the buzzer.
Michigan struggled all game to find an offensive rhythm, yet survived the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament and moved to the second one. If the new surroundings and the shooting backdrop at the Staples Center bring forth a renewed shooting team, Michigan will be the favorite to make the Final Four. However, if Michigan can’t improve its shooting woes, this team is begging to be bounced from the tournament.
Muahmmad Ali-Abdur Rahkman was 0 for 6 from three-point range against Houston. Teammate Zavier Simpson was 0 for 4. That will have to dramatically change against Texas A&M.
