Abilene Christian vs. Kentucky Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
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Jeremy Perry
The Abilene Christian Wildcats have made the NCAA Tournament nine times but that was for the Division II NCAA Tournament, not the Division I tournament. Now they’ve been invited to the big dance, but can they do more than just make an appearance?
To do so, they’ll have to slay the Kentucky Wildcats. While John Calipari’s team did not win the SEC championship (either in the regular season or their conference tournament), that was partially due to the injury to Reid Travis. Kentucky enters the NCAA Tournament at full strength and will try to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2015.
Abilene Christian (15) vs. Kentucky (2) NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Abilene Christian is just 5-4 straight up and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) when facing a team with a winning record this season, which is not a good sign. However, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Meanwhile, Kentucky has covered in four straight non-conference games and is 19-9-2 ATS in their last 30 neutral site contests. They’re laying a massive number here and are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine as a favorite of 18.5-24 points. They are a perfect 9-0 as a favorite in that range and have won 41 straight games as a neutral-site favorite of 12.5 or more.
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Abilene Christian, adjusted for the strength of its conference and the other metrics associated with playing in the Southland Conference, is just 145th in KenPom. Considering Kentucky is No. 7, this is going to be one of the widest gaps we’ll see in an opening matchup.
The Wildcats enter the tournament having won six in a row, but don’t get too excited as those wins were against Southland Conference opponents. Defence is their calling card as they’re 17th in points per game allowed (63.1) but again, keep in mind the strength of schedule. Only nine of the 353 teams in the country played a weaker schedule overall
Abilene Christian is No. 12 in turnovers forced and No. 7 in overall turnover differential. They’ll need a lot to keep this even remotely close. They’ll also hope to force Kentucky to take bad shots. It’s a lot to ask of this team but maybe a cover is in the cards.
Kentucky Wildcats
It was a tale of two seasons for the Wildcats. They started the year out by getting blown out by Duke in their opener and then had three losses in their first 13 games. However, they only lost three more games the rest of the way as John Calipari made changes that got this team on the right track.
As mentioned, the Wildcats did lose three times in their final 20 games but those three losses were to Tennessee (twice) and LSU. The Vols were a Top 10 team both times while LSU was ranked No. 19. Outside of that, this Wildcats team has been on-point.
P.J. Washington is the star of this team. Since the middle of January, he has taken off, averaging 14.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. This comes after a very slow start to his season in November and December. Combined with Reid Travis, who is now healthy, this team figures to destroy Abilene Christian near the basket.
