In a best-of-7 series tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to win the series the vast majority of the time. Those are the stakes facing the Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors as they return to the Air Canada Centre on Wednesday.

NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The old adage is that no NHL, MLB or NBA playoff series really “has started” until a road team wins a game in it. That hasn’t happened yet between the East top-seeded Toronto Raptors and No. 8 Washington Wizards as the series returns to Toronto on Wednesday for the crucial Game 5. It could well be the Raptors’ final home game of the season if they lose – and might lead to some big changes this offseason if so.

Despite losing the past two games in D.C., the Raptors remain favourites to win the Eastern Conference at +110, just ahead of Cleveland (+200). The big riser has been Philadelphia, now +225. Washington is +5000. On the NBA title odds, Toronto is +700, behind Golden State (+110) and Houston (+150). Early betting at Sports Interaction on Game 5 shows the Raptors taking a solid lean on the spread with over the total of 214.5 taking an even bigger lean. Washington is given a team total of 104 and Toronto 111. The favoured margin of victory is Raptors by 3-6 points at +450.

Washington Wizards

There were two significant differences for Washington in its two home wins compared to the two losses in Toronto: defence and the Wizards’ starting backcourt. The Raptors totaled 244 points in the first two games and just 201 in the two in D.C. John Wall had 28 points, 14 assists and seven rebounds in Game 3 and 27 points, 14 assists and six rebounds in Game 4.

Bradley Beal also has been much better in the past two NBA matchups, combining for 69 points after just 28 in the first two. He did foul out with just under five minutes to go in Game 4. Washington has now won eight straight playoff games at home, the second-longest active such streak in the NBA (Warriors).

Toronto Raptors

Dwane Casey lamented the Game 4 loss because his team was in control and didn’t have to worry about Beal down the stretch. Toronto blew a 14-point second-half lead, tied for the second-largest blown lead in Raptors postseason history. They scored just 18 fourth-quarter points, their fewest of any quarter this series. The Raptors seemed to shift from sharing the ball to an isolation offence, a problem in postseasons past.

DeMar DeRozan had a game-high 35 points in Game 4 but needed a whopping 29 shots to get there. He and Kyle Lowry combined for 44 shot attempts and made 38.6 per cent. The other Raptors were 17-for-35, 48.6 per cent. Serge Ibaka had just seven points. Jonas Valanciunas played only 15 minutes on Sunday, or nine fewer than reserve big man Jakob Poeltl. Reserve guard Fred VanVleet likely won’t be riding to the rescue, either, as he’s considered doubtful for Game 5. He hasn’t played in the series due to a shoulder injury. Rookie OG Anunoby played through a right ankle injury in Game 4 and managed four points in 22 minutes.

Injuries

Washington

Otto Porter Jr. (SF)

Out indefinitely Leg - 26 / 04 / 18

Jodie Meeks (SG)

out for season Suspension - 13 / 04 / 18

Mike Scott (PF)

Prob Sat Concussion - 12 / 04 / 18

Ian Mahinmi (C)

Prob Tues Concussion - 06 / 04 / 18

Markieff Morris (PF)

Prob Sun Illness - 01 / 04 / 18

Kelly Oubre Jr. (SF)

Prob Tues Foot - 04 / 03 / 18

Tomas Satoransky (SG)

Prob Wed Head - 13 / 02 / 18

Jason Smith (PF)

Out indefinitely Illness - 12 / 02 / 18

Tim Frazier (PG)

Prob Thurs Nose - 11 / 02 / 18

John Wall (PG)

Prob Mon Illness - 22 / 01 / 18

Toronto

Fred VanVleet (PG)

Prob Thurs Shoulder - 01 / 05 / 18

OG Anunoby (SF)

Prob Wed Ankle - 23 / 04 / 18

Pascal Siakam (PF)

Prob Sun Mouth - 21 / 04 / 18

Serge Ibaka (PF)

Prob Sat Mouth - 12 / 04 / 18

Norman Powell (SF)

Ques Mon Knee - 09 / 04 / 18

Lucas Nogueira (C)

Ques Sat Hamstring - 08 / 04 / 18

Jonas Valanciunas (C)

Out Sun Rest - 08 / 04 / 18

CJ Miles (SF)

Prob Sun Illness - 21 / 03 / 18

Delon Wright (PG)

Doub Sun Toe - 06 / 03 / 18

Nigel Hayes (SF)

Ques Fri Personal - 06 / 03 / 18

Injuries

Washington

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Otto Porter Jr. (SF)	Out indefinitely	Leg - 26 / 04 / 18	0-1	0-1	+ -
Porter Jr. will miss the remainder of the Eastern Conference first round against the Raptors as he is undergoing a procedure to relieve the blood flow of his leg contusion.
Jodie Meeks (SG)	out for season	Suspension - 13 / 04 / 18	2-4	3-3	+ -
Meeks has been suspended 25 games for violating the NBA's Anti-Drug program. He will not be available to participate in the playoffs and the suspension will carry over into the 2018-19 season.
Mike Scott (PF)	Prob Sat	Concussion - 12 / 04 / 18	2-4	3-3	+ -
Scott has been diagnosed with a concussion but is expected to be available for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Raptors.
Ian Mahinmi (C)	Prob Tues	Concussion - 06 / 04 / 18	4-5	5-4	+ -
Mahinmi was held out of the last game with a concussion but is likely to play Tuesday against the Celtics.
Markieff Morris (PF)	Prob Sun	Illness - 01 / 04 / 18	5-7	6-5-1	+ -
Morris has been dealing with an illness but is expected to play on Sunday against the Bulls.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (SF)	Prob Tues	Foot - 04 / 03 / 18	8-16	12-12-1	+ -
Oubre Jr. sat out the last game due to a sore left foot but is likely to play Tuesday against the Heat.
Tomas Satoransky (SG)	Prob Wed	Head - 13 / 02 / 18	14-17	14-17-1	+ -
Satoransky is dealing with a head injury but is expected to be available on Wednesday against the Knicks.
Jason Smith (PF)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 12 / 02 / 18	14-17	14-17-1	+ -
Smith has been held out of action with an illness and it is unclear as to how much time he will miss.
Tim Frazier (PG)	Prob Thurs	Nose - 11 / 02 / 18	14-18	15-17-1	+ -
Frazier missed the last game due to a nose injury but is expected to play against the Cavaliers on Thursday.
John Wall (PG)	Prob Mon	Illness - 22 / 01 / 18	20-21	21-20-1	+ -
Wall is expected to suit up against the Mavericks on Monday despite ailing from an illness.

Toronto

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Fred VanVleet (PG)	Prob Thurs	Shoulder - 01 / 05 / 18	2-2	2-2	+ -
VanVleet is dealing with a shoulder injury but is expected to be available for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Cavaliers.
OG Anunoby (SF)	Prob Wed	Ankle - 23 / 04 / 18	3-3	2-4	+ -
Anunoby suffered an ankle injury but is likely to be available for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Wizards.
Pascal Siakam (PF)	Prob Sun	Mouth - 21 / 04 / 18	3-4	3-4	+ -
Siakam will likely be available for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Wizards despite requiring stitches for a lacerated lip.
Serge Ibaka (PF)	Prob Sat	Mouth - 12 / 04 / 18	5-5	6-4	+ -
Ibaka is expected to play against the Wizards in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round despite taking a hit to his mouth in a previous game.
Norman Powell (SF)	Ques Mon	Knee - 09 / 04 / 18	6-5	7-5	+ -
Powell suffered a knee injury in the previous game and it is unclear if he will play Monday against the Pistons.
Lucas Nogueira (C)	Ques Sat	Hamstring - 08 / 04 / 18	7-5	7-6	+ -
Nogueira is dealing with left hamstring tightness and it is uncertain if he will play against the Wizards in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Jonas Valanciunas (C)	Out Sun	Rest - 08 / 04 / 18	7-5	7-6	+ -
Valanciunas will receive a day of rest and will not participate in Sunday's game against the Magic.
CJ Miles (SF)	Prob Sun	Illness - 21 / 03 / 18	8-12	11-10	+ -
Miles has missed the last two games due to a bout of gastroenteritis but is expected to be available against the Clippers on Sunday.
Delon Wright (PG)	Doub Sun	Toe - 06 / 03 / 18	13-16	15-15	+ -
Wright missed the last game due to a sprained right big toe and is not likely to play on Sunday against the Knicks.
Nigel Hayes (SF)	Ques Fri	Personal - 06 / 03 / 18	13-16	15-15	+ -
Hayes is dealing with visa issues and it is uncertain if he will be available for Friday's tilt against the Rockets.

Wizards vs. Raptors Game 5 Prediction