Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction, NBA Odds
The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs face off Friday night in a rematch. Just two nights ago, the Warriors handed the Spurs their first home loss of the season in a 125-120 victory behind a vintage 46-point explosion from Stephen Curry.
Now, the setting is identical in San Antonio, but the stakes are a little higher as both teams continue group play in the NBA Cup in-season tournament. Golden State sits 0–1 in group play after a loss in Denver, while San Antonio (1–0) can seize control of Group C with a win. The Warriors enter 7-6 overall, while the young Spurs are 8-3, led by Victor Wembanyama’s third-year campaign.
Warriors vs. Spurs NBA Betting Odds
San Antonio is a 2.5-point home favourite on the NBA odds with a total set at 235.5. The Warriors are 7-6 against the spread (ATS) this season and 9-4 to the Over, while the Spurs are 5-5-1 ATS and 7-4 to the Over. Golden State has struggled on the road (2-6) but just earned a key away win on Wednesday.
The Spurs, meanwhile, have been strong at home (5-1) and will look to protect their floor this time around. Despite their 8-3 record, San Antonio’s defence has been leaky against the three, ranking 27th in opponent 3-point percentage (39.3 per cent), while the Warriors take the second-highest share of their points from beyond the arc.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors’ 37-year-old Stephen Curry continues to defy time, carrying the team with dazzling scoring bursts. His 46 points on Wednesday marked his second 40+ performance of the season, and he’s averaging 27.1 points on 36.9 per cent shooting from deep. Jimmy Butler, in his first full season with Golden State, added 28 points and eight assists in that game, providing the needed secondary punch with Jonathan Kuminga (knee) sidelined early.
Kuminga, who leads the team in rebounding (6.6 RPG) and ranks third in scoring (13.6 PPG), remains questionable for Friday but is expected to suit up. Golden State’s defence ranks 10th in the NBA, and while its offence is only 22nd in rating, the team’s efficiency from the line (11th in free-throw rate) and from three (second in points from deep) has helped mask its lack of interior scoring (last in the league in points in the paint).
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio’s balanced, high-IQ style has them near the top of both offensive (eighth) and defensive (sixth) efficiency rankings. Victor Wembanyama continues to evolve into a two-way force, averaging 26.2 points, 13 rebounds, 4,0 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game while extending his streak to 96 straight games with at least one block.
Second-year guard Stephon Castle has been a revelation, logging his first career triple-double on Wednesday alongside Wemby, marking the first time two Spurs teammates achieved the feat in the same game.
Despite that, the Spurs’ 16-point lead vanished as the Warriors got to the line 36 times, more than doubling San Antonio’s 16 free throw attempts. The Spurs rank fourth in effective field goal percentage and fifth in free-throw attempt rate, but must cut down on turnovers (24th in the league) to secure a bounce-back win.
NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Warriors vs. Spurs?
While Curry and Butler powered an emotional midweek victory, Golden State’s aging stars may not have enough left in the tank against a refocused San Antonio team.
Expect the Spurs’ length and defensive adjustments to slow the Warriors’ perimeter attack and reclaim control in the paint. With NBA Cup implications on the line, the edge goes to the hosts.
Best Bet: Spurs -2.5
Lean: Under 235.5
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