The Golden Warriors missed 15 of their final 18 shots in Game 4 and blew a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the Western Conference finals against the Houston Rockets. The defending champions are still favourites but they’ve got their work cut out for them in this NBA matchup heading back to Houston with the series tied 2-2.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Rockets’ snapped Golden State’s 16-game unbeaten streak at home in the playoffs with their win at Oracle Arena on Tuesday. The Warriors are now 7-7 against the spread in these playoffs and 41-54-1 on the season overall. They haven’t covered the spread in two or more consecutive contests since the first round of the postseason. The only consistent betting trend with the Dubs has been on the total. The Under is 6-1 in their last seven matchups and 51-44-1 for the year.

Houston improved to 8-6 ATS since the start of the playoffs and 49-46-1 overall on the campaign. If the line holds and the Rockets close as short underdogs, it’ll be just the third time oddsmakers have them getting points at home. Houston is 1-1 ATS as a home underdog and 3-6 in all games with the dog tag this season.

About 84 percent of Sports Interaction customers are backing the Warriors to cover as 1-point chalk while it’s an even split on the 219.5-point total.

The Rockets’ odds to win the series dropped from +600 to +175 following the Game 4 win, but the Warriors remain the faves (-213) to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals at the futures book.

Golden State Warriors

There are a lot of things the Warriors would love to do over if they were playing Game 4 again. They probably wish Draymond Green didn’t get rejected by the rim on a wide-open dunk and head coach Steve Kerr knows he should have called a timeout on the second last offensive possession of the game.

The Warriors didn’t have Andre Iguodala because of an injury and All-Star shooting guard Klay Thompson appeared to hurt his knee after a failed layup attempt in the second half. Thompson returned to floor but was way off the mark on each of his last three shot attempts.

Golden State has a limited bench and can’t afford another injury to a key contributor.

Houston Rockets

Mike D’Antoni’s isolation-heavy offense looks nothing like the system he ran in his days in Phoenix but his player rotations are the same as those Seven-Seconds-or-Less Suns. Houston used six and a half players (Gerald Green played just 11 minutes) and Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker, James Harden and Chris Paul all played at least 40 minutes in Game 4.

It worked out, but Harden appeared low on energy as the game progressed. He scored 30 points on the night but had just two made baskets in the final 15 minutes in the game.

Injuries

Golden State

Shaun Livingston (PG)

Prob Sun Ankle - 20 / 04 / 18

JaVale McGee (C)

Prob Thurs Quadricep - 18 / 04 / 18

David West (PF)

Prob Thurs Ankle - 17 / 04 / 18

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Mon Thigh - 15 / 04 / 18

Damian Jones (C)

Prob Tues Foot - 09 / 04 / 18

Nick Young (SG)

Prob Sat Illness - 07 / 04 / 18

Kevon Looney (SF)

Prob Thurs Flu - 02 / 04 / 18

Patrick McCaw (SG)

Early June Back - 01 / 04 / 18

Quinn Cook (PG)

Prob Tues Knee - 27 / 03 / 18

Chris Boucher (SF)

Out indefinitely Ankle - 25 / 03 / 18

Houston

PJ Tucker (SF)

Prob Wed Knee - 24 / 04 / 18

Trevor Ariza (SF)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Clint Capela (C)

Prob Sun Hand - 11 / 04 / 18

Eric Gordon (SG)

Prob Sun Ankle - 11 / 04 / 18

Luc Mbah a Moute (PF)

Prob Sun Shoulder - 11 / 04 / 18

Nene (C)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Chris Paul (PG)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Tarik Black (PF)

Ques Tues Back - 06 / 04 / 18

Ryan Anderson (PF)

Prob Sat Ankle - 03 / 04 / 18

Gerald Green (SG)

day-to-day Leg - 01 / 04 / 18

Injuries

Golden State

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Shaun Livingston (PG)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 20 / 04 / 18	10-9	7-12	+ -
Livingston is dealing with a left ankle injury but is likely to play against the Spurs in Game 4 of the Western Conference first round.
JaVale McGee (C)	Prob Thurs	Quadricep - 18 / 04 / 18	10-9	7-12	+ -
McGee is nursing a left quadriceps contusion but is likely to play against the Spurs in Game 3 of the Western Conference first round.
David West (PF)	Prob Thurs	Ankle - 17 / 04 / 18	11-9	7-12-1	+ -
West sustained an ankle injury but is likely to be available for Game 3 of the Western Conference first round against the Spurs.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Mon	Thigh - 15 / 04 / 18	11-9	7-12-1	+ -
Iguodala is expected to suit up against the Spurs in Game 2 of the Western Conference first round despite a left thigh contusion.
Damian Jones (C)	Prob Tues	Foot - 09 / 04 / 18	12-11	8-14-1	+ -
Jones is expected to suit up Tuesday against the Jazz despite a left mid-foot sprain.
Nick Young (SG)	Prob Sat	Illness - 07 / 04 / 18	12-12	9-14-1	+ -
Young is battling an illness but is expected to be available for Saturday's game against the Pelicans.
Kevon Looney (SF)	Prob Thurs	Flu - 02 / 04 / 18	14-13	10-16-1	+ -
Looney was absent from the lineup during the last game due to flu-like symptoms but is likely to be available against the Pacers on Thursday.
Patrick McCaw (SG)	Early June	Back - 01 / 04 / 18	14-14	11-16-1	+ -
McCaw is sidelined with a lumbosacral bone bruise and is expected to be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Quinn Cook (PG)	Prob Tues	Knee - 27 / 03 / 18	14-16	12-17-1	+ -
Cook is dealing with a left knee contusion but is expected to play in Tuesday's contest against the Pacers.
Chris Boucher (SF)	Out indefinitely	Ankle - 25 / 03 / 18	15-16	12-18-1	+ -
Boucher has been held out of action due to a sprained left ankle and it is unknown how much time he will be forced to miss.

Houston

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
PJ Tucker (SF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 24 / 04 / 18	8-5	5-8	+ -
Tucker is expected to suit up against the Timberwolves for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference first round despite a left knee injury.
Trevor Ariza (SF)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Ariza will not be available against the Kings on Wednesday as he will be given the night off to rest.
Clint Capela (C)	Prob Sun	Hand - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Capela is battling a hand injury but is likely to be available for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Eric Gordon (SG)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Gordon has soreness in his left ankle but is expected to suit up against the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Luc Mbah a Moute (PF)	Prob Sun	Shoulder - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Mbah a Moute is recovering from a dislocated right shoulder but is expected to return for Game 1 of the Western Conference second round against the Jazz.
Nene (C)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Nene will receive a day of rest and will not partake in Wednesday's game against the Kings.
Chris Paul (PG)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Paul will not participate in Wednesday's game against the Kings due to a day of rest.
Tarik Black (PF)	Ques Tues	Back - 06 / 04 / 18	9-11	6-14	+ -
Black sat out the last game with a stiff lower back and it is unclear if he will play against the Lakers on Tuesday.
Ryan Anderson (PF)	Prob Sat	Ankle - 03 / 04 / 18	10-12	7-15	+ -
Anderson is recovering from a left ankle sprain but is expected to play in Game 3 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Gerald Green (SG)	day-to-day	Leg - 01 / 04 / 18	10-13	7-16	+ -
Green exited the previous game due to a left leg injury and it is unknown if he will return.

Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction