Warriors vs. Raptors Series Prediction: 2019 NBA Finals Odds
We’ll have previews of each individual game of the Warriors-Raptors NBA Finals, but today we’re taking a deeper look at the teams.
Let’s Talk Offence
It’s tough to compare the two offences without knowing whether Kevin Durant will play at all in this series. He hasn’t since the third quarter of Game 5 in the Western Conference semifinals against Houston due to a calf injury. It sounds like the earliest he would get back will be Game 3 – but then there’s no guarantee he will play at all. Durant is averaging an NBA-best 34.2 points in these playoffs. It’s also not clear when DeMarcus Cousins will return from his injury.
There’s no question, though, that the Warriors are the vastly superior three-point shooting team behind arguably the greatest shooting backcourt in NBA history, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry has really raised his game since Durant went out. Curry became the first player in NBA history to score at least 35 points in the first four games of a division/conference finals series while winning all four. He’s the NBA’s all-time playoff leader in 3-point field goals made with 447.
Golden State leads this postseason in shooting 37 percent from deep, while the Raptors are hitting 34.5 percent. Danny Green, the team’s best three-point shooter, is only hitting 31.4 percent.
Kawhi Leonard is averaging 31.2 points in these playoffs and is the seventh player since 2000 to score at least 30 points in 10 or more playoff games in a single postseason. The Warriors are averaging 117.3 points in the playoffs and the Raptors 104.9.
Defence Will be Key
Leonard has no defensive peer in the league and his work on Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Eastern Conference Finals was nothing short of majestic. Leonard was named to the NBA’s All-Defensive Second Team for his regular-season work, while Golden State had two guys on the Second Team in Thompson and forward Draymond Green. Andre Iguodala also is a plus defender. So is Durant these days. Yet the Warriors are allowing 110.2 points per 100 possessions, which ranks ninth among the 16 teams to make the playoffs and is 1.8 points per 100 possessions more than the average (108.4).
Kyle Lowry is going to have his hands full chasing Curry around compared to the three primary point guards he has faced thus far in Orlando’s DJ Augustin, Philadelphia’s JJ Redick and Milwaukee’s Eric Bledsoe. None of those guys can hold a candle to Curry offensively.
Toronto is allowing only 99.6 points in the playoffs.
Will Experience be the Deciding Factor?
Obviously, the Warriors have the huge edge in Finals experience as this is their fifth straight season playing for a title. Only the Celtics have been to more Finals consecutively (10 straight from 1957-66). The Dubs probably would be going for a five-peat if Green hadn’t gotten himself suspended a game in 2016 against LeBron James’ Cavaliers. The Warriors have only faced James-led teams in the Finals previously. Golden State’s players have a combined 140 games of Finals experience.
Leonard has Finals experience from his Spurs days and was the 2014 Finals MVP. He has played a total of 12 Finals games, going 7-5. Green has the same record. Serge Ibaka played in the 2012 Finals when his Oklahoma City Thunder lost in five games to LeBron’s Miami Heat. Patrick McCaw played on the Warriors the previous two seasons.
2019 NBA Final Odds
As of May 27th, the overall series odds have the Raptors priced as +187 underdogs, with the Golden State Warriors the favorite at -278.
The favoured result at Sports Interaction is Golden State winning in six games at +275, while the long shot is a Toronto sweep at +3300. On the game and series double prop, the Warriors winning Game 1 and the series is a +110 favourite.
