The Golden State Warriors are playing pretty well these days as they’ve won five of six with the lone loss being a one-point shortcoming to the Houston Rockets. On Sunday, they’ll visit the Dallas Mavericks, who are being led by a star rookie but have still had trouble winning games.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Warriors are 11-8 on the road this season but they’ve been much better of late. They’ve won seven of their last eight away games. They are 28-14 overall but only 18-24 against the spread (ATS). What’s interesting to note is that the Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus an opponent with a winning home record. As for the Mavericks, they are a healthy are 16-4 at home even though they are just 20-22 overall. They’ve been a profitable bet, though, going 25-17 against the spread. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against opponents with a winning road record.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have found much more of an offensive rhythm the past five games, winning four of them and scoring at least 122 points in each of them. They’re starting to look like the Warriors of old, notching three wins of at least 23 points in that same five-game stretch.
What is significant about that is that the Warriors are winning games easily enough that their star players aren’t being overextended in terms of minutes. This is one of the most important goals for a team which has played roughly 100 games in each of the past four seasons due to its continued deep playoff runs. The Warriors are not an airtight regular season team because they know they need to save energy for the playoffs. The 73-9 team from 2016 did not win the title, and that experience taught Golden State a lesson about not pushing too hard during the regular season. Sunday’s should be pretty simple if they are focused: stop Luka Doncic. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner is averaging 23.4 points per game along with 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists over his last 10 games. However, if the Warriors can clamp down on him, they should have an easy time getting by the Mavs.
Doncic is the Mavs catalyst as witness on Friday night when he hit a huge three-pointer late on Friday night in a 119-115 win in Minneapolis against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He has been everything the Mavs hoped he would be and then some. The Mavericks’ overall offence isn’t always humming – the team scored fewer than 98 points in two of its past five games, both losses. They are just 19th in points per game but Golden State is not a consistent team. They take nights off and look past opponents. The Mavs can take advantage if that’s the case.
A key concern for the Dallas entering this game is that J.J. Barea – a dependable veteran guard who played 20 minutes per game and averaged almost 11 points and six rebounds in those 20 minutes. He’s the team’s sixth man and was fifth in scoring. Dallas probably has to make this a grind of a game and keep this low-scoring to win, but that’s not likely to happen against the league’s highest-scoring offence.