Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have seemingly willed the Denver Nuggets to a split through their first four games of their Western Conference semifinal series against the Portland Trail Blazers. Now, with home-court advantage back in tow, they will fight to take control of the series as it shifts back to Colorado.

The Nuggets, which owned the best home record in the NBA during the regular season, have struggled to build on that success with a 3-2 record at the Pepsi Center in the playoffs. Can Denver find a way to get the job done in front of its home fans?

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Portland is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games following a straight up loss. They’re also 4-1 in their last five games after allowing their opponent to score 100 points or more in their previous contest. Portland went just 21-20 on the road in the regular season and are about the same on the road in the playoffs so far, going 2-2.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets will try to take control of the series on their home floor after going an NBA-best 34-7 at the Pepsi Center during the regular season. Denver is 5-1 against the spread in its last six home games versus teams with winning road records. They have also won six of the last eight meetings between the teams between the teams.

Portland Trail Blazers

It’s a battle of styles as Portland thrives when these games are defensive struggles while Denver wants these games to be high-scoring. The winning team has scored 97 points or more in each victory in this series, including 116 points or more in three of them.

For the Blazers, they know what they’re going to get from their roster. They’ll have about 80 points from Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and a third weapon like Enes Kanter or Rod Hood. Combined with the rest of the roster, they’ll be at around 100 or so.

If these games keep go beyond that, they don’t have the depth to hang around. Games 1 and 4 were high-scoring and Games 2 and 3 were defensive struggles (the score at the end of regulation in Game 3 was 102-102). Portland’s defense has to lead the way or they’re not going to win.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have thrived when both Murray and Jokic have been going at the same time in these playoffs. Jokic is the model of consistency but Murray is the key to their success. He is coming off a monster performance in Game 4 when he scored 34 points with five rebounds and four assists. Meanwhile, Jokic is coming off another triple-double after going for 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists. When this team really starts to get going is when the rest of the squad starts to fill it up. In Game 4, Millsap had 21 points and 10 rebounds in what was arguably his best playoff game. Garry Harris battled foul trouble but also had his best game of the series, pouring in 14 points. When these guys get going and the team gets some help from the bench, they’re tough to beat.

The Nuggets need another strong game from Murray and help from the cast. If that happens, they’ll win Game 5.

TRAIL BLAZERS

Away

107

NUGGETS

Home

110

Score
Predictions

Matchup