The Denver Nuggets had a strong offensive showing in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinals, scoring a playoff-best 121 points in their 121-113 win. Is that a sign that their offence has, in fact, woken up or was it just a one-off?

NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

After the Game 1 performance, Portland is now just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five road games. The Trail Blazers are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with home winning percentages greater than .600. However, Portland is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a straight up loss, so perhaps that will serve as a confidence builder heading into an important Game 2 on the road.

Meanwhile, Denver is 6-0 against the spread in its last six conference semifinal games. They are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams from the Northwest Division. However, Denver is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. It’s also worth noting that the Over has gone 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last four games versus teams with winning percentages above .600.

Portland Trail Blazers

The fact that Damian Lillard scored 39 points with six assists and three rebounds in a loss should be concerning for the Trail Blazers. Lillard was electric throughout Game 1 but it wasn’t enough to get the job done. The strangest part is that Enes Kanter was also nearly perfect in the opener. Kanter scored 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting with seven rebounds in the loss. So how did Portland fail despite such strong performances from Lillard and Kanter? C.J. McCollum wasn’t great from the field. The Trail Blazers also gave up 121 points while allowing Denver to shoot 50.6% from the field. Portland needs to shore things up at the defensive end of the floor in order to have a shot in Game 2. After losing by eight points despite outstanding performances from Lillard and Kanter in Game 1, the Trail Blazers absolutely need more at both ends of the floor from everybody else on their roster.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets shot the lights out versus Portland in Game 1. Jokic went 11-of-18 from the field while racking up 37 points. Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap combined for 42 points on 15-of-27 from the field. Consistency was an issue for Denver throughout its first round series against the San Antonio Spurs – especially from this duo. This won’t be much of a series if all three are producing on a nightly basis versus just Jokic, who was the lone consistent in the opening round.

Portland is getting eaten up down low and it’s unclear what they can do to fix that. And the x-factor continues to be Murray as the team seemingly always wins when he plays well. If Portland can’t keep him under wraps like San Antonio did, Portland will have a tough time in this series.

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