The Spurs and Thunder meet in Las Vegas on Saturday for an NBA Cup semifinal that features two of the league’s most intriguing young cores. San Antonio arrives having won nine of its past 12, including a 132-119 quarterfinal victory over the Lakers, powered by Stephon Castle’s 30-point performance. Despite Victor Wembanyama missing 12 straight games with a calf injury, the Spurs have surged behind improved guard play and excellent depth. 

Oklahoma City, meanwhile, continues to operate at a historic level. Wednesday’s 138-89 dismantling of Phoenix pushed the Thunder to 24-1, matching the 2015–16 Warriors for the best 25-game start in league history. This will be the first of five meetings between the clubs this season, and with both sides sitting in the top tier of the West, it carries more weight than a typical tournament matchup.

OKC is a heavy 9.5-point favourite to win on the NBA odds, with the total pegged at 226.5.

Spurs vs. Thunder NBA Betting Odds

The Thunder enter the semifinal 14-11 ATS and 14-11 to the Over, thriving as double-digit favourites with an 11-6 ATS mark in that spot. The Spurs sit 13-11 ATS and 14-10 O/U, and they have been strong as underdogs, covering six of nine. Oklahoma City boasts the league’s top defence and an offence ranked fifth, while San Antonio is sixth offensively but only 16th defensively (an expected dip with Wembanyama sidelined). 

The Spurs’ uptick in form, paired with Wembanyama’s potential return, has kept the spread from climbing further. Both teams are in the top five in limiting opponent points off turnovers, second-chance points, fast-break points, and paint points, suggesting a defensive-tilted matchup.

San Antonio Spurs

Castle’s return from a hip injury couldn’t have come at a better time, as his 30-point performance against the Lakers, 21 of which came in the second half, showed how quickly he has adapted to the physicality of the NBA. 

De’Aaron Fox has re-established himself as a reliable playmaker and clutch scorer, while rookie Dylan Harper and Keldon Johnson have helped stabilize the rotation. The Spurs’ bench has become a legitimate asset, now ranking eighth in the league at 39.3 points per game.

The biggest storyline, however, is Wembanyama’s status. He travelled with the team and is officially a game-time decision, with coach Mitch Johnson saying he very much has a chance to play against OKC. His presence alone transforms San Antonio’s defensive ceiling and rim protection, two areas they have worked hard to patch during his absence.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City continues to look unstoppable. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander extended his 20-plus-point streak to 96 games with 28 in the win over Phoenix, while Chet Holmgren added 24 and remains one of the league’s most efficient two-way bigs. The Thunder have won 16 straight and own the NBA’s top defensive rating by a significant margin.  There are, however, a few injury questions. 

Isaiah Hartenstein has not played since November 26 and remains questionable. Isaiah Joe is also a game-time decision, and Cason Wallace exited the Phoenix game with an undisclosed injury. Still, Oklahoma City’s depth remains a strength, with the league’s seventh-highest bench scoring output at 40.9 points per game.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Spurs vs. Thunder?

If Wembanyama plays, this matchup tightens considerably. The Spurs have developed confidence and cohesion during his absence, and their guard depth can match Oklahoma City’s pace and pressure for longer stretches. The Thunder remain deserving favourites, especially with the league’s best defence and elite clutch metrics, but San Antonio has the tools to drag this into a possession-by-possession contest. 

Expect Oklahoma City’s late-game execution to prevail, but look for the Spurs to stay within the number. With both defences excelling at limiting easy baskets, this projects as a grind.

Best Bets: Spurs +10.5 and Under 225.5

SPURS

Away

109

THUNDER

Home

114

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