An absolute classic is brewing in the Western Conference Finals as this truly incredible series shifts back to Oklahoma City Tuesday for a pivotal Game 5. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center, airing on Sportsnet in Canada. 

After the San Antonio Spurs started Game 3 at home up 15-0, the Thunder won the rest of the game 123-93. San Antonio responded like true heavyweights on Sunday night, securing a dominant 103-82 Game 4 home victory to tie the series at two games apiece.

The big-picture implications Tuesday are immense, as this series has officially been reduced to a best-of-three sprint. San Antonio has remarkably avoided losing three consecutive games all season long, and that resilience was on full display as they completely bottlenecked Oklahoma City’s high-octane offence. With both teams trading massive blows, this contest promises to be an all-time postseason battle in front of a raucous Thunder crowd.

Spurs vs. Thunder NBA Betting Odds

Bettors have actively noticed a line move leading up to tip-off. The Thunder originally opened as 5.5-point favourites, but support has steadily shifted the favour toward the visiting underdogs, pulling the spread down to 4.5 on the NBA odds.

Totals bettors should note that Sunday’s slugfest easily sailed under, primarily because Oklahoma City suffered its worst three-point shooting night of the entire year. Sharp money is anticipating another tightly contested, defensive-minded battle.

San Antonio Spurs

The visiting Spurs are playing with immense confidence after sticking to their defensive adjustments in Game 4. The Spurs continued to swarm Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter, turning him into a passer. This made OKC’s role players beat them, and this time, they didn’t hit their shots, converting a miserable 18 per cent from beyond the arc. 

De’Aaron Fox chipped in a gritty double-double (12 points, 10 boards), while Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell added 13 points each. Crucially, San Antonio’s bench bounced back, providing 30 vital points from six different players to match the Thunder’s depth. San Antonio also altered its substitution patterns for Victor Wembanyama, who dominated with 33 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder look like the team with far more adjustments to make after getting punched in the face early in back-to-back games in San Antonio. In Game 3, the Thunder were 17-of-45 from three, and in Game 4, they were a season-worst 6-of-33. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to just 19 points on 6-for-15 shooting and is hitting shots at just a 39 per cent clip from the floor in this series. Compounding their issues, the secondary unit fell completely flat; after exploding for 68 bench points in Game 3, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Jared McCain combined for a mere 12 points on Sunday. Ajay Mitchell remains out, and if Jalen Williams continues to be a no-go, OKC desperately needs Chet Holmgren to snap out of his offensive funk.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5?

Expect this Game 5 to be an instant classic that comes down to the final possessions. While Oklahoma City should benefit from positive home court shot variance and a bounce-back night from their role players, the Spurs look entirely comfortable dictating the overall style and tempo of this matchup.

Wembanyama is playing at an unguardable level, and San Antonio’s defensive game plan has clearly disrupted Gilgeous-Alexander’s rhythm. The Thunder may narrowly survive at home, but the Spurs cover this spread.

Best Bet: Spurs +4.5 (-105)

SPURS

Away

107

THUNDER

Home

108

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