The Denver Nuggets just can’t keep it together. It finally looked like they had momentum on their side, winning Games 2, 4 and 5, but they reverted back to their offensively-challenged ways in Game 6. Can they sort things out in Game 7 or will this be another episode of this young team’s growing pains?

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

San Antonio was just 16-25 on the road in the regular season. The Spurs are just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games versus teams with home winning percentages greater than .600. However, San Antonio is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games played on one day of rest.

Meanwhile, Denver is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games following a straight up loss of 10 points or more. The Nuggets led the NBA with 34 wins on their home floor in the regular season and have since added two more in the postseason. However, Denver is just 2-5 against the spread in its last seven home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Nuggets are also just 1-8 ATS in the last nine times when tied in a playoff series.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have battled hard just to have a shot in Game 7. They’re counting on their experience and savvy carrying them here.

San Antonio will need DeMar DeRozan to step up with another monster performance similar to what he produced in Game 6. DeRozan had 25 points on 12-of-16 shooting from the field with seven assists and seven rebounds. That efficiency is off the charts and a big reason why the Spurs won that game. Meanwhile, LaMarcus Aldridge will also be called on for another big performance following his team-high 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in Game 6.

San Antonio also needs more from its bench with Rudy Gay and Patty Mills in the spotlight. Gay went 7-of-11 from the field for 19 points in the last game but has struggled from the field in this series. Meanwhile, Mills was just 3-of-12 from the field including 0-for-7 from beyond the arc.

The Spurs have the correct recipe to win a Game 7 on the road.

Denver Nuggets

Denver certainly had its fair share of passengers in Thursday night’s 17-point loss on the road. Jamal Murray had 16 points on just 7-of-18 from the field. We’ve mentioned this throughout the series but he’s the key to their success. When he has off shooting nights, it really hurts the team.

Similarly, the rest of the cast was off too. Will Barton, Malik Beasley and Monte Morris combined to go just 4-of-19 from the field for eight points. The Nuggets guards have struggled with consistency throughout this series. It’s do-or-die for them now as they either deliver or their season is over.

As per usual, Nikola Jokic has been the Nuggets’ most consistent player. He exploded for 43 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists with two steals and a block, which makes it all the more surprising that they lost by 17. Again, the key is getting the wing players to shoot better. The Nuggets went six-of-24 from three in Game 6 and they simply have to be better.

The Spurs shot 57.1 percent from the field in Game 6 but don’t expect that to happen again. Denver will have the slightly better shooting night  to advance.

SPURS

Away

108

NUGGETS

Home

110

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