Rockets vs. Jazz Odds, Prediction: Game 3 NBA Playoffs

Payton Matthews | Updated Apr 18, 2019

rockets vs jazz game 3

If the Utah Jazz have any chance in their first-round Western Conference playoff series against the Houston Rockets, they have to win Game 3 on Saturday in Salt Lake City.

Houston
53-29
AT
April 20, 2019, 10:30 PM ET
Vivint Smart Home Arena
Utah
50-32
Pointspread +2 -115
Moneyline -105
Over / Under o +216.5

83%

Betting Action

17%

Pointspread -2 -105
Moneyline -115
Over / Under u +216.5

83%

Betting Action

17%

Pretty much every team in the NBA is much better at home than on the road, and that’s the case for Utah, which was 29-12 in Salt Lake City – always one of the NBA’s toughest places to play due to the altitude and a boisterous crowd – and 21-20 on the road. Houston, meanwhile, was 22-19 on the road during the regular season compared to 31-10 at home.

NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The teams split at Vivint Smart Home Arena this season. Utah won the first on Dec. 6 easily, 118-91, even though star centre Rudy Gobert was ejected in the first quarter. The Rockets turned it over 22 times, leading to 33 Jazz points. James Harden was held to just 15 points, and that still led Houston. Derrick Favors had 24 off the bench to lead the Jazz.

On Feb. 2, the Jazz were blown out on their own court by the Rockets 125-98. Harden had 43 points and Gerald Green 25 off the bench. Houston didn’t even have Chris Paul. Utah turned it over 23 times. Donovan Mitchell had 26 points but no other Jazz player more than 11.

The Rockets are 5-1 against the spread in their past six in Utah. The total has gone under in four of the previous five there.

Houston Rockets

This series has been pretty simple so far with Houston up 2-0: The Rockets have Harden and the Jazz don’t. The reigning NBA MVP (likely to finish second this season) was dominant again in a 118-98 Game 2 victory with a triple-double of 32 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists.

About the only thing the Jazz have managed to do so far is keep Harden off the free-throw line – he led the league by far in free-throw attempts during the season – but they clearly need to alter their strategy against the “Beard.” Double-team him, something. No other Rocket had more than 17 points in Game 2. Houston is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games.

Utah Jazz

Utah was one of the NBA’s top defensive teams during the regular season and was No. 1 in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break but has now allowed 122 and 118 points, respectively, in being blown out twice in Houston. Offensively, no Utah player had more than 17 points in Game 2. Regular-season leading scorer Mitchell struggled again, shooting just 5-for-19 for 11 points.

The Jazz have to hit their three-pointers to have a chance but again didn’t, going 8-for-38 from deep. Utah was outscored 51-24 from behind the arc. No doubt the Jazz will play much better in front of the home fans, and we can all but guarantee they won’t lose by at least 20 again. The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their past five home games vs. teams with a winning road record.

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