Raptors vs. Rockets Point Spread: NBA Odds, Prediction
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Jeremy Perry
The Toronto Raptors are playing steady basketball and are remaining near the very top of the NBA’s Eastern Conference. With the Indiana Pacers losing Victor Oladipo for the rest of the season, Toronto’s odds of winning the East just improved.
Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets have the NBA’s MVP-to-be once again as James Harden is producing one of the most astonishing offensive displays ever seen in NBA history. Can the Raptors slow him down on Friday night in Houston?
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Raptors are 36-14 straight up and 23-27 against the spread (ATS). More recently, they are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games but just 6-4 against the spread. Road games have been dicey for them in terms of covering as they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games versus an opponent with a home winning percentage over .600, which the Rockets have. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games versus an opponent with a winning home record. Overall, they’ve covered just twice in their last 10 road games. However, the Raptors have won three of four in this series – including two straight in Houston.
The Rockets are 27-20 straight up and 22-24 against the spread heading into this game. Houston is 17-7 overall and 14-9 ATS at home but those numbers have been much better of late. They are 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 home games.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are 8-2 in their last 10, but if you look more closely at their last eight games, their two losses were to primary contenders in the East – Indiana and Boston – while their wins have come against teams which are either well out of the playoff picture or are no better than two or three games above .500, near the lower end of the playoff picture in their respective conferences. The Raptors’ six most recent wins have come against the Kings, Grizzlies, Suns, Wizards, Nets, and Hawks. Toronto’s last win over a team which was at least 10 games over .500 was against Indiana back on Jan. 6.
Even so, the Rockets are an undermanned team these days. They needed overtime to beat the LeBron James-less Los Angeles Lakers last Saturday and lost at home to the Brooklyn Nets on Jan. 16. Losses at home to Milwaukee and at Orlando show that this team is vulnerable right now.
Houston Rockets
Look at this list of 11 numbers:
- 38. 32. 42. 43. 38. 57. 58. 48. 37. 61.
Those are the point totals for James Harden in his last 11 games, from earlier in January (Jan. 3 against Golden State) through this past Wednesday in New York against the Knicks. Harden is having one of the great runs of any player in the history of basketball. He has hit at least five three-pointers in all but one of those 11 games and made at least 10 free throws in eight of those 11 games. He has made at least 11 field goals in 10 of those 11 games.
The challenge is that Harden is doing a lot on his own these days. Clint Capela and Chris Paul are out and the Rockets just don’t have the quality on the bench like they did last season. That’s why they have alternated wins and losses for 11 straight games. Toronto is the opposite as they have a lot of depth and a defensive star in Kawhi Leonard who can (hopefully) slow down Harden.
