Scoreboard	1	2	3	4	Odds
Toronto Raptors 53-19	28	19	29	28	+217
Boston Celtics 48-24	33	24	23	23	+3.5

Scoreboard

Odds

Toronto Raptors 53-19

+217

Boston Celtics 48-24

+3.5

NBA
Charlie Grant
September 2, 2020

Raptors vs. Celtics Game 3 Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread

The Raptors’ reign as NBA champions could soon be coming to an end. Toronto finds itself down 0-2 in its second round series against the Boston Celtics. And while the Dinos can at least take comfort knowing there is no home-court advantage to lose in the bubble, history tells us the odds are stacked against a series comeback.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Of the 420 instances of an NBA best-of-seven series starting out with one team taking a 2-0 lead, only 27 times has the trailing team come back to win the series. That means the Raptors have about a 6.4 percent chance to win four of the next five games against the Celtics.

Sports Interaction is slightly more optimistic about Toronto’s chances. The online sportsbook lists the Raps at +425 moneyline odds to win the series. Those odds translate into an implied probability of 19 percent.

NBA history indicates the value on the series betting lies with the Celtics who are listed as -556 chalk to move onto the next round. That equals 84.8 percent implied odds. Remember, 93.6 percent of the time the team leading 2-0 wins the series outright.

And of course, there’s also the fact that Boston appears to have Toronto’s number this season. The C’s improved to 5-1 straight up and against the spread in six games against the Raptors.

Still, more than 80 percent of SIA’s customers are backing the Raps to cover as 1-point favourites in Game 3 and about 75 percent assume the game will go Over the 215-point total. The Under is 7-1 in Boston’s last eight games overall and 4-1 in Toronto’s last five contests.

Toronto Raptors

It took some time but the Raptors are finally looking like a side missing a star player like Kawhi Leonard. Head coach Nick Nurse had the luxury of relying on Kawhi to create his own shot whenever the team’s offence was sputtering.

Pascal Siakam is a very good player, but he’s not an elite bucket-getter. Kyle Lowry is an excellent two-way point guard, but he’s showing his age in this series.

Boston Celtics

NBA player prop bettors may want to consider taking the Under on Jayson Tatum’s point total in Game 3. Nurse complained after Game 2 that Tatum getting more foul shot attempts than the Raptors as a team doesn’t seem to add up. Expect the refs to be a little less generous with the whistle for Boston’s wing player in Game 3.