Friday’s NBA Cup group play features two of the hottest teams in the Western Conference, as the Nuggets visit the Rockets in a big one for West Group B. Denver enters 11-3 while Houston has been right there with them, coming in at 10-3. 

The Rockets have won nine of their last 10 games and have been dominant at home, while Denver continues to travel well at 5-2 on the road. With both teams battling injuries, this contest becomes a significant test of will and depth.

Nuggets vs. Rockets NBA Betting Odds

The market expects a tight contest, with Houston sitting as a narrow -2.5 favourite on the NBA odds and Denver available as a short +1.5 underdog. The total is listed at 234.5, a number that reflects two elite offences. 

Denver sits 9-5 ATS and Houston is similarly strong at 9-4 ATS, while the Rockets’ 10-3 O/U record highlights how frequently their games have trended toward being high-scoring.

Denver Nuggets

Denver continues to look like a championship-calibre unit behind Nikola Jokic’s early MVP-level production: 29.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, 11.1 assists and 1.7 steals per game. The Nuggets emphasize rapid-fire ball movement to create buckets and are averaging 123.2 points over their last 10 games on 49.8 percent from the field. More surprisingly, their defensive rating has jumped to third in the league after finishing 21st last season. 

Denver ranks third in defensive boards and remains one of the league’s best teams at denying second-chance points. However, the Nuggets will be without Christian Braun and may be missing Aaron Gordon and Julian Strawther as well – severely thinning their wing and forward depth.

Houston Rockets

Houston’s early-season output is backed by a re-tooled offence led by Kevin Durant, who is averaging 25.5 points while the Rockets own the league’s top offensive rating through 13 games. Sengun’s leap has been equally significant (27.5 points per game over his last three and 12 paint points per game this season),as Houston ranks first in offensive rebounding, first in two-point made field goal rate and third in points scored from the mid-range area due to his contributions. 

Defensively, the Rockets have slipped slightly from their strong 2024-25 baseline, but still sit seventh in defensive rating and thrive when they cut off passing lanes. Houston is without Fred VanVleet for the season, and Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith will both be out tonight. 

Versatile forward Amen Thompson has had the onus of primary ball-handling and facilitation responsibilities as the Rockets lack a true point guard in their starting five. It’s no surprise that the combination of Durant and the lack of a true PG has resulted in the Rockets being dead last in assisted basket rate.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Rockets?

To me, the stylistic profiles point in the opposite direction of what this total suggests. Both teams take a high percentage of mid-range attempts, both play at a moderate-to-slow pace, and neither relies on three-point volume. 

Denver’s ability to limit second-chance points directly counters Houston’s greatest strength, while the Rockets’ discipline in limiting assists challenges Denver’s ball-movement-heavy offence. With several key players out or questionable and defensive intensity typically rising in NBA Cup games, the Rockets should edge a low-scoring game 113-111.

NUGGETS

Away

111

ROCKETS

Home

113

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Predictions

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