Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Game 3 Prediction, NBA Odds

Edgar Chaput | Updated Jun 06, 2023

NBA: Finals-Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets

The NBA Finals change scenery from Colorado to South Florida for Game 3 between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat.

June 07, 2023, 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread -3.5 -110
Moneyline -171
Over / Under o +212.5
Pointspread +3.5 -110
Moneyline +142
Over / Under u +212.5

In Game 2 the Miami Heat did what they’ve done all postseason:  outwork and out-hustle a team that is supposed to be better than them, which led to a 111-108 win. The result tied the NBA Finals at 1-1 with a couple of contests coming up on the Heat’s court.

The basketball savants believe that Mike Malone’s Nuggets will get the job done in Game 3, but not by much. They’re -2.5 favourites on the NBA odds. The total is currently set at 214.5.

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals Betting Odds

Game 2’s result has shaken the series table. Heading into the second bout, Denver was a -769 favourite to win the title. Now, with the series even and potentially three of the next four tilts in Miami, that has changed to -278. The Heat now sit at +199, so they should be feeling pretty good about themselves.

Being tied 1-1 is new territory for Denver. In each of their three previous rounds, they travelled to the underdogs’ cities up 2-0. Conversely, Miami will have gone through all four rounds having never lost the first two games on the road. Overall, the Nuggets are 10-7 against the spread, whereas the Heat are an impressive 15-7.

Save for a couple of games in the Eastern Conference final, Miami has been splendid at home, with a 6-2 record and a few blowout wins to boot.

Denver Nuggets

Denver is far too talented and has more than enough depth to avoid worrying about what happened in Game 2 and where its result has left them. Even so, they have a lesson or two to learn about what it means to play the 2023 playoff Miami Heat.

Sunday night was many games within a larger game. The visitors looked loose and comfortable in the opening minutes, claiming a 21-10 lead after seven minutes. From that point on, it was the Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic, who stormed back and eventually held a 50-35 lead five minutes before halftime. Bruce Brown got in on the action (11 points), although Jamal Murray was a quitter than usual (18 points off 7-for-15 shooting).

The Joker did everything in his power to lead his club to victory, frequently bulldozing his way into the paint for a total of 41 points. But it was a curious night. So often a triple-double player, he only had four assists. Perhaps he sensed that this one was on him. It didn’t matter in the end because Miami found its rhythm from beyond the arc and it can be argued that Denver let them. It often felt like a repeat of Game 1 when the Heat had many open looks. Shots from distance weren’t as contested as they should have been, and this time the Nuggets paid the price.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are road playoff underdogs, playing in a hostile environment, trailing by double-digits at some point in the game, but find a way to win. What else is new?

It happened again, only this time, there was something different from the outset. As we just explained in the previous section, Miami came out firing early. Max Strus, who had a Game 1 to forget, hit a couple of threes early to get going. He only finished with 14 points, but considering the Heat won by just three, it was all hands on deck. The sign that things are going very well is when three important players hit the 20-point mark. Jimmy Butler (21), Bam Adebayo (21), and Gabe Vincent (23) all had solid nights individually and collectively made the difference.

Three-point shooting was sensational at 48.6 per cent (17-for 35). Both Games 1 and 2 saw Miami execute great movement off the ball and passing to get open shots. In Game 1 they didn’t fall. In Game 2 they did. If they continue to confuse Denver’s defence the way they have so far, all they need is to make their shots.

Game 3 Prediction: Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Heat?

NBA Predictions