The Toronto Raptors begin their title defence when they tip off their first round series against the short-handed Brooklyn Nets on Monday afternoon. While Toronto is a huge favourite to get past Brooklyn, one historical betting trend suggests steering clear of backing Nick Nurse’s side in Game 1.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Getting off to a strong start in a playoff series has long been an issue for the Raptors. The club is 4-15 straight up (SU) in the first game of their 18 playoff series in the franchise’s history. The Dinos are also 3-13 against the spread (ATS) in their last 16 Game 1 outings. 

The trend isn’t as pronounced if we look back to the Raptors last two postseason appearances. The team is 3-3 SU and ATS in the first games in playoff series from the last two years – including outright wins against the Golden State Warriors in last June’s NBA Finals and another against the Philadelphia 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Raptors won the season series against the Nets (3-1) but covered the spread in just two of those contests. Toronto went 7-1 SU and 6-2 against the number in its eight games in the seeding games. It dusted off the Nuggets on Friday by scoring its most points in a game (117) in the bubble. The Under still went 7-1 in their eight games in the restart. 

The Nets won five of eight in the seeding games and covered the spread in six of those eight outings. It was good enough to earn the club the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference and the right to play the defending champs in the first round.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting Brooklyn to put up much of a fight against the Drakes. The Nets are +1500 ($100 bet pays $1500 if the Nets beat the Raptors) while Toronto is a -10,000 favourite (bet $10,000 to win $100).

Brooklyn Nets

Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie are all not available for this series. The trio did not come to the bubble with Durant and Irving recovering from long-term injuries and Dinwiddie opting out of the restart.

That leaves the bulk of the offensive responsibility on the shoulders of Caris LaVert. The fourth year guard out of Michigan scored 27 or more points in three of the seven games he played in during the seeding matchups.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors will be well-rested heading into their first playoff game. Many key players sat out two of the team’s last three games. Serge Ibaka was one of those veterans to rest up over the final few days of the seeding schedule.

The big man is expected to continue his role as the team’s sixth man. He could be a huge difference maker in the series. He averaged 18.3 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks against the Nets this season.

Who Will Win Nets vs. Raptors?

Injuries

Brooklyn

Joe Harris (SG)

Out indefinitely Personal - 19 / 08 / 20

Donta Hall (PF)

Prob Mon Ankle - 12 / 08 / 20

Chris Chiozza (PG)

Prob Mon Groin - 11 / 08 / 20

Jarrett Allen (C)

Prob Thurs Ankle - 10 / 08 / 20

Joe Harris (SG)

Prob Thurs Groin - 10 / 08 / 20

Caris LeVert (SG)

Prob Thurs Thigh - 10 / 08 / 20

Garrett Temple (SG)

Out Tues Rest - 10 / 08 / 20

Jarrett Allen (C)

day-to-day Ankle - 08 / 08 / 20

Joe Harris (SG)

day-to-day Groin - 08 / 08 / 20

Caris LeVert (SG)

Doub Sun Rest - 08 / 08 / 20

Toronto

Serge Ibaka (PF)

Prob Wed Ankle - 07 / 09 / 20

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SF)

Prob Sun Knee - 21 / 08 / 20

Fred VanVleet (PG)

Out Fri Rest - 14 / 08 / 20

OG Anunoby (SF)

Prob Mon Knee - 12 / 08 / 20

Serge Ibaka (PF)

Prob Mon Knee - 10 / 08 / 20

Fred VanVleet (PG)

Prob Wed Knee - 10 / 08 / 20

Paul Watson (SG)

Doub Sun Back - 09 / 08 / 20

Serge Ibaka (PF)

Prob Sun Eye - 08 / 08 / 20

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SF)

day-to-day Ankle - 01 / 08 / 20

Oshae Brissett (PF)

Out indefinitely Knee - 31 / 07 / 20

Injuries

Brooklyn

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Joe Harris (SG)	Out indefinitely	Personal - 19 / 08 / 20	1-2	1-2	+ -
Harris is away from the team due to a personal matter, and there is no timetable for return.
Donta Hall (PF)	Prob Mon	Ankle - 12 / 08 / 20	3-2	2-3	+ -
Hall is nursing a sprained right ankle, but it is expected that he will take on the Raptors in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Chris Chiozza (PG)	Prob Mon	Groin - 11 / 08 / 20	4-2	3-3	+ -
Chiozza is experiencing tightness in his right adductor, but he is expected to take the court for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Raptors.
Jarrett Allen (C)	Prob Thurs	Ankle - 10 / 08 / 20	5-2	3-4	+ -
Allen missed the last game with a left ankle sprain, but it is likely that he will suit up against the Trail Blazers on Thursday.
Joe Harris (SG)	Prob Thurs	Groin - 10 / 08 / 20	5-2	3-4	+ -
Harris was absent from the lineup in the last game due to a left groin contusion, but it is anticipated that he will be available for Thursday's tilt with the Trail Blazers.
Caris LeVert (SG)	Prob Thurs	Thigh - 10 / 08 / 20	5-2	3-4	+ -
LeVert was held out of the previous contest due to a left thigh contusion, but it is expected that he will face the Trail Blazers on Thursday.
Garrett Temple (SG)	Out Tues	Rest - 10 / 08 / 20	5-2	3-4	+ -
Temple will not play Tuesday against the Magic due to a day of rest.
Jarrett Allen (C)	day-to-day	Ankle - 08 / 08 / 20	5-2	3-4	+ -
Allen is hobbled by a sprained left ankle, but he is expected to be available to face the Clippers on Sunday.
Joe Harris (SG)	day-to-day	Groin - 08 / 08 / 20	5-2	3-4	+ -
Harris is managing a left groin contusion, but he is expected to take the court versus the Clippers on Sunday.
Caris LeVert (SG)	Doub Sun	Rest - 08 / 08 / 20	5-2	3-4	+ -
LeVert is not expected to line up against the Clippers on Sunday as he will be rested.

Toronto

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Serge Ibaka (PF)	Prob Wed	Ankle - 07 / 09 / 20	2-1	1-2	+ -
Ibaka is dealing with a left ankle sprain, but he is expected to play against the Celtics in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference second round.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SF)	Prob Sun	Knee - 21 / 08 / 20	4-5	2-7	+ -
Hollis-Jefferson is bothered by swelling in his left knee, but he is likely to be active for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Nets.
Fred VanVleet (PG)	Out Fri	Rest - 14 / 08 / 20	6-6	5-7	+ -
VanVleet will receive a day of rest and will not be available against the Nuggets on Friday.
OG Anunoby (SF)	Prob Mon	Knee - 12 / 08 / 20	7-6	5-8	+ -
Anunoby is dealing with with soreness in his right knee, but he is likely to be active for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Nets.
Serge Ibaka (PF)	Prob Mon	Knee - 10 / 08 / 20	8-6	5-9	+ -
Ibaka is bothered by a right knee contusion, but he is expected to play against the Nets in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Fred VanVleet (PG)	Prob Wed	Knee - 10 / 08 / 20	8-6	5-9	+ -
VanVleet missed the last game due to a hyperextended right knee, but he is likely to be available for Wednesday's contest against the 76ers.
Paul Watson (SG)	Doub Sun	Back - 09 / 08 / 20	8-7	5-10	+ -
Watson is dealing with soreness in his lower back, and he is not expected to be in the lineup Sunday against the Grizzlies.
Serge Ibaka (PF)	Prob Sun	Eye - 08 / 08 / 20	9-7	5-11	+ -
Ibaka was forced from the previous game due to an eye laceration, but he is likely to be active Sunday versus the Grizzlies.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SF)	day-to-day	Ankle - 01 / 08 / 20	11-7	5-13	+ -
Hollis-Jefferson exited Saturday's game with an ankle injury, and his return is in question.
Oshae Brissett (PF)	Out indefinitely	Knee - 31 / 07 / 20	11-7	5-13	+ -
Brissett is expected to be sideline for an extended period due to right knee surgery in order to remove loose bodies.