Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Game 1 Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated May 16, 2022

After upsetting the NBA's best regular season team in the second-round of the playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks will have another tough fight when they hit the road to open the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday.

Dallas
52-30
AT
May 18, 2022, 9:00 PM ET
Chase Center
Golden State
53-29
Pointspread +5.5 -110
Moneyline +181
Over / Under o +214.5

48%

Betting Action

52%

Pointspread -5.5 -110
Moneyline -218
Over / Under u +214.5

48%

Betting Action

52%

The third-seeded Golden State Warriors host the No. 4 Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday. The Warriors opened as 5-point favourites to win Game 1 on the NBA odds with a total of 214.5 points.

Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs Betting Odds

Should either Golden State or Dallas reach the NBA Finals, it would have home-court advantage against the Boston Celtics if they win the Eastern Conference but not against the Miami Heat.

The Mavericks were 3-1 vs. the Warriors in the regular season, but key Golden State player Draymond Green only played in one game. Dallas star Luka Doncic averaged 31.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists. Toronto native Dwight Powell averaged 5.3 points and 4.8 rebounds in about 19 minutes per game in the series. Steph Curry averaged 20.0 points, 7.8 assists and 6.8 rebounds for the Warriors and Toronto native Andrew Wiggins 16.5 points.

On the series line, Golden State is -227 and Dallas +183. At +1.5 games in the series handicap, the Mavericks are -123 and the Warriors at -1.5 games are -115. The favoured exact result is Warriors in five at +321 followed by seven (my early lean) at +351. The over-under for total games is 5.5, with the over a -172 favourite.

The Mavericks are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven at Golden State.

Dallas Mavericks

It is not hyperbole to say that the Mavericks’ 123-90 victory at NBA No. 1 overall seed Phoenix in Game 7 on Sunday was one of the most unlikely results in league playoff history. Not so much that Dallas won, although it was +6.5, but that it absolutely obliterated a team that had won a franchise-record 64 regular-season games. It was the second-largest margin of victory in a series-clinching game vs. the best regular-season team in league history.

With Doncic, the Mavs have a chance to beat anyone. He’s that good. Doncic had 35 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two steals Sunday and averaged 32.6 ppg, 9.9 rpg and 7.0 apg in the series. Doncic had 27 points at halftime Sunday, the same amount the Suns had as a team. Phoenix’s 30-point halftime deficit was the largest halftime deficit in a Game 7 in NBA playoff history. The home team had won the previous six games in this series. The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a win.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors will have the rest advantage after they finished off Memphis 110-96 last Friday. Klay Thompson had been largely struggling from the field in the series but finished 8-for-14 from deep for 30 points. If that Thompson shows up every night, the Warriors are going to win it all – and they are +133 favourites to do so. Curry (26.0 ppg in series) is the +174 favourite to win NBA Finals MVP.

The Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals for the sixth time in the last eight years, the first West team to accomplish the feat in 30 years. Dating to the regular season, Golden State has won eight straight home games. In Game 1’s of a playoff series all-time, the Dubs are 41-32, including 20-2 since 2015. Head coach Steve Kerr missed the final three against Memphis due to COVID but is back now. Guard Gary Payton II remains out injured. The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Mavericks vs. Warriors?

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