Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Prediction, NBA Odds
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the Western Conference Semifinals having made quick work of the Phoenix Suns in a first-round sweep. Tonight, they welcome a Los Angeles Lakers squad that is battered but unbowed after a physical six-game series against Houston.
History is not on LA’s side tonight, as the Thunder held a staggering +29.3 average point differential against them during the regular season.
Lakers vs. Thunder NBA Betting Odds
The NBA odds board has the Thunder currently set as 15.5-point favourites. Oklahoma City has won 95.2% of their games when listed as a -1100 favourite or higher. The Lakers are 0-1 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 16 points or more.
Los Angeles Lakers
The visiting Lakers are leaning heavily on the fountain of youth being tapped by LeBron James. At 41 years old, James was the most impactful player on the floor against the Rockets, but the physical toll is mounting.
The major concern for LA is the possession gap. They averaged 9.2 fewer shot attempts than their opponents in the first round, which is a recipe for disaster against an OKC team that excels at forcing turnovers.
With Austin Reaves still shaking off the rust from an oblique injury and Doncic sidelined, the Lakers’ offence lacks the gravity needed to pull Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein out of the paint.
Head coach J.J. Reddick does run sharp actions and the veteran, high-IQ passing ability from the likes of James, Reaves and Marcus Smart will pay dividends in finding open shooters curling around screens and pindowns against a Thunder defence that leaves its terrific one-on-one defenders on an island.
The Lakers shot the ball exceptionally well from deep against the Rockets until the Rockets extended their entire defence out and funneled the Lakers into the paint, so LA should find some offensive success against a Thunder defence that packs the paint.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is the epitome of a buzzsaw. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is heading toward a second consecutive MVP, but the real strength is the depth. Coach Mark Daigneault played 10 players at least 12 minutes per game in the first round.
While Jalen Williams is dealing with a hamstring strain, the presence of Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace ensures the perimeter defence remains ferocious. The Thunder are rested, healthy and playing at a championship pace in attempts to defend their crown.
OKC ranked first in turnover rate, second in offensive rebounding and fourth in opponent turnover rate in the first round, and the Lakers allowed 14.8 fastbreak points per game to the Rockets.
The Thunder scored 119 or more in each game against the Suns, and they scored 119 or more in all four regular-season meetings with the Lakers.
NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Lakers vs. Thunder?
Expect a dominant performance from the home side. The Lakers’ inability to secure the ball will lead to a track meet that favours the younger, faster Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will command the half-court, but the value is on Isaiah Joe.
Joe averaged nearly 20 points against LA this season and enters this game on significant rest, a situation where he has shot over 60% from three-point range this year.
LAL
OKC